Monday, March 28, 2011

Railing the Sunday Storm tournament

About 90 minutes ago, I ended more than 4 hours watching an online tournament when I could have been playing.  But it was a good time investment, and I learned a lot.

The tournament had an extremely large, and extremely weak, field.  What was even more interesting to me was that it had a very good structure.  Often very large tournaments will speed up the blinds so that they don't run too long--which is exactly the opposite ]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]q2]\  [Psalty just walked across my keyboard] of the structure that I like.  But big prize pool, slow blinds, and weak field--that's right in my wheelhouse.

The tournament started with over 111,000 players.  It was an $11 tournament, and I know that the field was weak because satellites were runnning 10 or more at a time to get people into this thing, and the satellites were only $2.20.  When you have a bunch of people who can't afford to get into a tournament, who try to take down a cheaper tournament to win a seat, that just screams, WEAK FIELD.  And since so many satellites were running, 24 hours a day (there are 16 registering right now), I think that most in that huge field earned their tournament spots that way.

When I started watching, there were 131 players left, and the players getting knocked out had finished just high enough to mincash.  The blinds were so high that I didn't think that those 131 players would last very long, but when I realized that it would be quite a while, I was learning so much that I decided to stick with it. That took 4 hours and 4 minutes.  The entire tournament ran for almost 11 hours.

I analyzed the tournament correctly.  Even when it was down to 36 players, they were making basic mistakes.  Players were limping (making the minimum bet) when their stacks were so small that the only two choices were to go all in or to fold.  There were also players so worried about getting knocked out before the next pay level that agressive players pushed them around mercilessly.

Sometimes just surviving until the next pay level is correct, especially when it's life-changing money. Economists call that marginal utility, when just one more unit of something makes all the difference.

The classic example is that if a person is starving, the marginal utility of one loaf of bread is great.  A more contemporary example might be avoiding risk at the poker table, while coasting into enough money to buy a car, or to pay a year of college tuition.

If players had been making that decision with a thousand dollars or more on the line, it might make sense--but jumps that big didn't happen until it got down to the final two or three tables.

In my opinion, the $25-$50 prizes that had players playing carefully after nine hours were not a big deal when the prizes at the final table were so huge.  Usually you need a good reason not to take the risks necessary to get to the final table, and the final table money was so compelling in this case that it's not even a close call.  Ninth place was $8,418.98.  First place was $210,531.74!

So, I watched this extravaganza, and I liked what I saw.  The Sunday Storm runs once a week, and I would definitely like to give it a shot.  Satellites have their quirks, but they happen to be one of my specialties (I used to play a lot of $2.20s and cash out the ones that I won, adding the $11 to my bankroll instead of entering the target tournament) so I probably wouldn't have any problem taking one down in 2 or 3 tries.

But I'm hesitant to do that yet, for several reasons:

1. I'm not bankrolled to play $2.20s yet.  My Consolidated Bankroll Formula tells me that I need  $114 in my bankroll to play $2.20s.

2. When I win a satellite, the Sunday Storm buy-in might be better used by cashing out and adding $11 to my bankroll.

3. Variance.  No matter how good a player is, there is huge variance when playing in a very large tournament.  It's easy to make one big mistake, or to have a run of really bad luck, sometime during an 11-hour tournament.  To put it another way, you have to be both lucky and good to go deep in such a large field.  And since the Sunday Storm only runs once a week, it would take a long time to play it often enough to reach the long-term, where skill dominates luck.

In any case, I can't play that tournament, or any of the other Sunday Majors, more than twice a month.  Starting in April, half of the time I will be gettting up early to go to church on Sundays.  Getting up in the morning, going to church, coming home around noon, playing a tournament that starts at 3:30 P.M. and could go for 11 hours--not a good plan.  I would definitely prefer to be rested and able to make good decisions when a lot of money is at stake.

4. It's 11 hours!  Players didn't start cashing until about 9 hours in.  I could easily play 6, 7, or 8 hours and not cash.  That's a lot of time during which I could have been doing something else--like making money.

So, it was interesting.  I learned a lot about how different players react in an unusual tournament situation.  It would be fun to try, and I might have a decent shot at making some serious money if I played it once in a while. 

But now is not the right time.  The Sunday Storm, and all of the Sunday Majors, will have to wait for a while.

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Results for week 3/20-3/26

HOURS
Administrative  2.25
Study                  12.00
Play                     13.00
                              -------
                              27.25

As stated in my previous entry, two storms in one week blew a pretty big hole in my poker playing.  I made some of that up with extra study time (I shoot for at least five hours), and studying is the most important thing that I can do.  There are players that spend 50% of their time studying, but I need to spend a plurality of my time playing, at least until my hourly rate is high enough that I can play less and study more. I don't see that happening any time in the near future.  Right now it's all about the benjamins.

PROFIT AND LOSS
Starting bankroll, 3/20  85.10
Ending bankroll, 3/26    85.90
                                                 --------
                                             +$0.80

Not a very exciting number, but I'l take it.  I didn't have much time to play, and the 90-player tournaments where I've been making make most of my profit were all but cut out of the week.  I played two of them and didn't cash.  It takes about four hours to win one of those, and trying to work tournaments around storms and storm warnings doesn't leave a lot of multi-hour windows open for playing.

As far as I know, there isn't anything on my schedule today (Sunday) so when I get up in the afternoon, I should be able to hit it hard and get in some serious hours, probably at least ten.  (I track my sessions based on the date that I started playing, so my last Sunday session usually ends sometime Monday morning).

Friday, March 25, 2011

A messed up week (two storms)

I"m down about $4 for the week, which ends tomorrow at midnight, but that's not the issue.  I try to win every month, but I know it's not going to happen every week.  The main problem has been the weather.

There were two storms this week, a thunderstorm, and what the National Weather Service calls a "winter storm."  The first storm knocked power out for 3 hours, but I also didn't play for several hours on either side of the storm.  I don't have the bankroll to be putting money at risk when I might lose my internet connection.

The second was part of a "winter storm warning", which promised a combination of rain, freezing rain, snow, and sleet.  I know that ice on power lines can cause a lot of trouble, so again I didn't play.  Schools were closed, my wife's car door was almost frozen shut, and driving was teacherous.  I never lost my connection or power, but again, I didn't want to take the chance of losing my internet connection once money was invested.

The Catch-22 here is that I'm not playing for enough money that paying for redundant or backup systems (backup power supply, air card for my wife's laptop, generator) makes financial sense.  One option, once we have an air card, would be to figure out the closest place with 24 hour wi-fi, grab my wife's laptop, and jump in the car.

The problem with that plan is that I really don't want to mess with moving my database to another computer (which is necessary to use the heads-up display, displaying the statistics on opponents I have played against previously).  And of course, if power is down, I can't move anything from my desktop. 

But if I'm already in a tournament, playing without a HUD would be better than not playing at all.  After all,  once I've paid the entry fee, what would I have to lose?

Thursday, March 24, 2011

So much to learn

"The more you know, the more you know you don't know and the more you know that you don't know."
— David Byrne (The New Sins)

A year ago, I thought that I knew a lot about poker.  Now, I know a lot more, but I'm amazed at how many things I've discovered that I don't know, and need to learn.  It occured to me recently that someone who knows my live game, or who has tracked my online stats, would be amazed how much my game has changed--and I don't mean just that I'm a better player.  I mean that bit by bit, without even realizing it, I've completely changed my approach to the game.

I'm much more of a game-theory based player.  I've never studied game theory, and I doubt that I could take such a class.  I don't have the mathematical coursework that would be a prerequisite.   But I've put together pieces here and there, from reading those like Andy Bloch* who do understand game theory and how to apply it to poker, that game theory is more and more becoming my approach.

I started playing with a careful, very conservative approach, playing very few hands and not wanting to make any mistakes.  Then I opened up a little, learning to be an exploitive player, one who takes advantage of obvious mistakes by his opponents.
'
Now, I'm much more of a game theory player.  I'll give a specific example:

Conservative Clif would only play very good hands, around the top 10%, so when I played, my hand would probably best.  That's fine as far as it goes, but I didn't play enough hands to accumulate enough chips to survive large-field tournaments.

Exploitive Clif, against a very loose player, might play a few more hands, probably the top 15-20%, knowing that I would still often be best against an opponent who likes to play a wide range of starting hands.

But Game Theory Clif knows that if I'm facing an opponent that plays 62% of his starting hands, it is optimal to play in the top half of that players range.  That is, when facing a bet from that player, I should call or raise with anything in the top 31% of starting hands.  To play fewer than exactly 31% would be missing out on long-term profit opportunities.

I'm completely revamping my game.  Based on other charts in one of Andy Bloch's charts in The Full Tilt Poker Strategy Guide: Tournament Edition, I have been adding to the number of hands that I play when I am the first to raise an unopened pot.  I have to work form a chart, because I'm tweaking my list before I have even attempted to memorize the old one.

But it's not just game theory.  Just like the musician that discovers that there is more to music that learning the notes and the major scales, I'm coming across more and more things that I consider fundamental, and I'm working to learn those things.. It's overwhelming, and at the same time it's exciting.  While I'm memorizing one thing, or studying one area, I come across three more things that I want to learn.

It's a lot of fun to learn all these new things, and to see my game get better and better.  Trying these new things, I'm making a lot of mistakes, and I still have a good shot at increasing my bankroll by 50% this month.

Here are just a few of things that I need to learn, practice, or memorize:

The odds of being dealt an ace, and at least one other player having a ace, given the number of players (2-10) at the table.
Which hands are favored against a random hand, a top 10% hand, a top 25% hand,  and a top 50% hand.
What starting hands I should play at a short table (7 players or less).
The optimal bluffing frequency in different situations.
When to call a raise, and when to reraise.
When I am getting the correct pot odds to call with a very weak hand.
How to make better use of opponent statistics displayed in the Holdem Manager heads-up display.
How to use the Holdem Manager replayer to study my hands and look for leaks.
Learn about different statistics that I might want to use in my heads-up display.

I could make the list a lot longer.  There are a lot of poker books that I would like to read.  I want to learn more about both hardware and software, such as how to set up and use two monitors, or the best way to share my HEM database between two computers.

There certainly is a lot to learn.

*Andy Bloch, one of the top poker pros, also coached the M.I.T. blackjack team, which was made famous by the movie "21".  He holds degrees from M.I.T. and Harvard.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Bloch

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Results for week 3/13-3/19

HOURS
Administrative 2.25
Study                    1.50
Play                    36.00
                           ---------
                            39.75

I barely missed on my 40 hours, but I seem to have a hard time balancing the individual categories.  Last week I got my goal of 5 hours of study, but not my 35 hours of play.  This time I concentrated on getting the play hours in, and I barely studied.

Studying is critical.  If I don't study, I won't get better.  But just as important, if others are studying and I'm not, I'll fall behind the other serious players, or at the very least, not move up as quickly to higher buy-ins.  I figured out how to use the Holdem Manager replayer, so maybe I'll do what many of the top players do, and spend some of my time going through some of my hands and looking for obvious mistakes.

PROFIT AND LOSS
Starting bankroll 3/13, 67.65
Ending bankroll 3/19, 85.10
+$17.45

I never doubted that I would break through and start making some money sooner or later, but being a long-term thinker (as every good poker player must be) was getting pretty old.  It's a huge relief to finally be going in the right direction.  Soon I'll be able to think about fun things like how fast to move up, and what to do with the money I withdraw from my account.

Friday, March 18, 2011

A night of small cashes

Last night (ending this morning) was my longest nonstop session in quite a while.  That is partly because I went fairly deep in my first try at a large-field tournament (1,000 players) in a while.  But it was a small cash, because most of the money is always made at the final table.

Still, it's good discipline for me to play tournaments that force me to sit there for a long time.  I started the session at 1745 yesterday, and ended at 0122 today, close to 8 hours later.

Psalty had a problem with the session.  She laid on the desk the whole time, and got lots of petting (she's 20 years old and she doesn't do much but sleep and purr), but she was disappointed at my choice of snacks--chocolate (which cats can't have), pretzels, and a carrot.  She loved the smell of the carrot, but after one lick she decided it wasn't as good as it smelled.

Here are the results of my night of small cashes, including a 27-player tournament from an earlier (afternoon session):

Afternoon session
$1.20 27-player tournaments, 5th place, $2.20, net result +$1.00

Evening session
$1.10 1,000-player tournament, 32nd place, $4.00, net result +$2.90
$1.40 90-player knockout tournament, 11th place, $2.20, bounty for one player knocked out, $0.25,
net result +$1.05

The good news is that I was 3 for 3 cashing, the bad news is that I got the minimum cash in the two smaller tournaments.  Still, I'm pretty happy.  I got some time in, and worked on parts of my game in specific situations.  I went fairly deep in a large field after not playing a large tournament for a while.

Most important, it's going to be another week in the black, I'm rebuilding my bankroll, and good things are ahead.  I'll continue to mix in some large-field tournaments, I'll start playing more than one table again, and in general I'll start taking the risks that are necessary to reap the financial rewards.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Results for week 3/6-3/12

HOURS
Administrative  5.75
Study                    6.00
Play                     28.75
                              -------
                              40.50

I have 3 goals for my weekly hours:
1. A total of at least 40 hours.
2. At least 5 hours of study.
3. At least 35 hours playing.

I missed on the 35 hours playing, and I'm not sure how that happened.  For some reason I thought I had more play hours than I did, and by the time I realized that I was in danger of falling short, we had committed to taking my youngest granddaughter out to dinner Saturday night, I was more tired than expected when I got home Saturday night, and it didn't happen.

That's two weeks in a row where I left something until the last day, and I should be upset about that.  On the other hand, Saturday is supposed to be my big day.  It's the day when the most players are online, when game/tournament selection is the widest, and it's the day of the week when most players have the most profit.  So I should plan on Saturday being my big day.

But now there is the church issue again.  It's March now, and it's not cold enought that my wife needs me to make sure that her car is cleaned off, and that the doors aren't frozen shut, before she goes to work (which is shortly after the time that my last session ends).

Except for poker, I have no reason not to go to church at least some of the time, and I'll have to figure that out.  I've thought about playing all night Saturday, going to church Sunday morning, and sleeping when I get home, but the last time I tried that, I was fighting to stay awake during church.  I've also thought about alternating months, for example, a poker-friendly schedule in May, and a church-friendly schedule in June.

A third option would be to change it up depending on what's going on that week.  If I wanted to play one of the Sunday Majors (I've done that once) I could stay on my night schedule, sleep Sunday morning, and be rested and ready on Sunday afternoon to play a tournament that could go 12 hours or longer.  If there was something special going on at church, then I could plan for that as well.

Church is important, and poker is my job.  I'm not happy with any of the scheduling options that I can come up with, but I'm going to have to pick one and go with it.  It's a shame that Sunday night church services don't exist any more.  Then it would be simple.  I could play a Sunday major whenever I wanted, and if I didn't go deep in the tournament that Sunday, then I would go to church.  But that of course isn't an option.

PROFIT AND LOSS
Starting bankroll 3/6    53.40
Ending bankroll 3/12    14.58
                                              --------
                                        +$67.65

This month, so far, so good.  This was a very nice week, with a 27% boost to my bankroll.  I still haven't played any tournaments larger than 90-players this month, but my bankroll is getting to the point when it's not unreasonable to take an occasional $1 high-variance shot at the bigger tournaments, so I'll be mixing in a few of those soon.

Until I have at least one more good week, my main focus at the $1 level will be to steadily build up my bankroll so that I can play at the $2 level.  If all goes well for the rest of the month, I'll probably be playing quite a few more 1,000+ player MTTs in March.