Embracing Statitical Variance

The more that I play online and build up my bankroll, the less scared I am about losing.  I'm starting to become a maniac in the last hour of tournaments, sometimes going all in several times in a row, until I either get knocked out or I have a huge chip stack  Now that I have an actual bankroll of more than 100 buy-ins, I don't have to be afraid any more.

I played a tournament a few hours ago where 18 cashed.  I was in 10th place with about 30 players left.  I like to be the first one to shove,  I'm rarely the one that calls an all-in unless it would only cost me a small percentage of my stack if I lost the hand.  The (virtual) dealer gave me a pair of jacks.  I would be second to act, and if I was called I was very likely to have the best hand, as JJ is in the top 5% of no-limit holdem hands.  I was going to go all-in.

The player who was first to act went all-in.  He seemed be a pretty good player and based on his play in previous hands, he was very likely to have a top 5% hand as well.  I estimated that my chances of having the best hand were even, about 50%.  I thought about it for less than five seconds, and I called.

Indeed he did have a hand as strong as mine.  He showed a pair of queens and I was out of the tournament.  I had all but locked up a cashing spot, I have been on a losing streak lately (see previous post) but it didn't matter.  I know that playing the way I do now, the times than I win hands like that and wind up with a top three cash will more than make up for a string of losses when I win nothing.

I knew all that when I was playing live tournaments last year, but I couldn't really embrace it. When I won $300 in a $50 live tournament, that gave me six buy-ins.  Intellectually I knew the right way to play, but as a practical matter I knew that when my bankroll was gone, I would be able to afford playing only once a month, if that.   Poker players refer to a situation like that as  "playing with scared money," and it's real.  When everything is at risk, you play differently.

I loved playing live poker.  I met all kinds of people from all walks of life, all types, races and backgrounds, men and women.. If I had to choose to play poker either live or online I would definitely play live, if I knew I could make money doing it.  It's not even close.

That said, I have had to scramble for work many times, and I'll do just about anything legal and moral to make money.  I worked for a lot of temp agencies, and one day I might be working in a cubicle, then a few days later I would be working on a factory floor, running a punch press that squirted grease all over me every time that it slammed down (temps get all the fun jobs in a factory.)

I'll probably play some live poker in 2018.  For now it's online only, probably for the rest of the year. It's all about the bankroll and the benjamins.