My Bankroll Problem

There are two main things to know about my poker bankrolls (live and online):

1.  My goal is to have at least 100 buy-ins for every tournament that I play.

2.  I started my bankrolls from nothing.

The idea was to build both my live and online bankrolls up to 100 buy-ins, then build them further so that I could move up to the next level.  I'm at 68 buy-ins for the highest online tournaments that I'm playing.  I'm down to 4 buy-ins for live tournaments.

An astute reader of this blog is thinking, "Wait a minute Clif, you said you should drop down a level before your bankroll gets small, then build it back up."  Yes, I should have done that, but I can't.  There are no lower levels.

There are two places that I know of where I can play live tournaments, one close to my home and one in the nearby city of Grand Rapids.  The tournament line-ups are nearly identical, in fact, they are identical on Friday and Saturday, offering one $50 tournament each of those two nights.

I am a caregiver, on alternate weeks, on duty either Sunday through Wednesday, or Sunday through Thursday.  I allow myself a day to catch up on my sleep before playing live, so the only nights that I can play live tournaments are some Fridays and most Saturdays.  That's it.  I play one of those $50 tournaments, or I don't play that week.  The $20-$40 tournaments only run on days that I can't play.

I always tell my wife that there is usually more than one solution to a problem, and that is true in this case.  Some of those solutions are:

1.  Play live less often.  My wife and I get a weekly stipend for helping with my mother-in-law, and I have been using 20% of that money to prop up my live bankroll, 20% for my poker expense account, and 10% for adding to my online bankroll. If I keep doing that and play only once every other week, that money can keep my bankroll propped up as long as my losing streak continues.

2.  I can change those distribution percentages.  I don't have any wiggle room with the expense account, because I have to buy a new printer.  But I could stop adding to the online bankroll for a while and bump the live bankroll distribution up to 30%.

3.  I can modify my playing style for a while.  I hate to do it, but there have been times when I (correctly) played to win the tournament when I could have easily coasted and won a few buy-ins, instead of going for the $1,000 first prize (20 buy-ins).  If I get in a situation where I'm vey low on chips I might consider hanging on to those chips if it gets me into the money, or if I've already cashed, I might be satified to coast one place higher before I'm out of chips.  Desperate times call for desperate measures.

I hate all of those options.  #1 is bad, because most months I am in fact able to play only three times in a month because of family or other obligations.  Johnathan Little says that it takes 100 live tournaments to be good at it, which is really scary when I'm playing 3 times a month.

#2 is bad, because I already have 68 online buy-ins on Americas Cardroom or in cash, and I would love to push forward and get that up to 100, then start building for the next level.  I'm doing fairly well in those tournaments, and I expect to get up to 100 buy-ins before too long.  I don't really want to slow that process.

#3 is bad, because tournament poker sucess is about a few big cashes, not a lot of small ones.  Most of the money is at the final table, and most of the final table money goes to the top three places.  #3 might save my bankroll and let me hang on until things turn aournd, but it will considerably lengthen the time it takes to get to 100 buy-ins.

Unless I get a decent live cash soon, it will probably be some combination of those bad options.  I'm only going to play in Grand Rapids once this month, which will free up a little money and time for me to do other poker-related things and try to finally get this thing off the ground.

Taking Your Job Too Seriously

With playing poker, as with any other job, there are people that take their job seriously.  But there is a point at which you take your job a little too seriously.  Someone posted the following on 2+2:

I guess it's no surprise that poker room people are possibly the most callous people on earth, but I was a little shocked at these events.

I'm walking into the room as I approach the brush stand*, there is a loud noise. A guy next to the cage just collapsed and hit the half wall on the way down. He is completely motionless and I thought it was a good chance he just dropped dead.

The brush looks at me and says what game. I say, "Use the mic and call for a doctor." He acted embarrassed at having to do so calling for a doctor in the room. 

The in house paramedics arrive about 2 minutes later and the guy has still not moved an inch. I see the paramedic lumbering down the hall and I have walked faster crossing a street while a car is waiting for me to cross.

Meanwhile, I look up and every game in the room is still dealing new hands. The guy finally comes to, thankfully. But it was just wierd.

*aka registration desk.  I had to Google the term, which was more difficult than I expected.  It has multiple meanings, depending on the context.  Adding the word "poker" as a search term didn't nail it down because "brush stand" can mean the stand holding a fireplace poker.)

Poker Math--An Example

I have talked a lot about the importance of math in poker decisions.  The math can be fairly simple (if I call that bet, how many chips will I have left?)  On the other extreme, there is a section of Harrington on Holdem where the author uses seven pages of math to solve a poker problem.

A lot of the poker math nerds hang out in the Poker Theory thread on the twoplustwo.com poker forums.  I want to get better at my decisions late in tournaments, and I want to advance beyond a general understanding of the concepts, and really dig down, work the math,and study it deeply.

This is cutting-edge poker theory, in fact, the concept of Bubble Factor has only been around for a year or two as far as I know.  That makes it a timely topic for this post.  For those who want to know more there is a link at the end of this post.

Here is the question that I posted:

How are ICM and Bubble Factor related?  I'm starting to dig more deeply into the math of poker and I've never seriously studied either, though I've done some reading about Bubble Factor.

I would like to dig a little more into these concepts, but I don't quite understand how and if they are related to each other. From what I know they both seem to be about considering tournament and prize pool structures when considering a bet, for example, the bubble factor would obviously be very high if you're in a satellite that pays the top ten the same amount, 15 players are left and you're in third place.

Are they two ways of saying the same thing? Is one more important than the other in different situations?

Here is the best response that I received:

The bubble factor (BF) is Prize $ lost if you lose the hand / Prize $ gained if you win. It uses ICM theory to get these values. It is easy to show that it is always greater than 1.0. 

Assume an all-in bet of B when the pot odds are P. Then in a cash game the required equity is B/(B+P). Dividing numerator and denominator by B, you have 

eq_chip >= 1 / (1+Pot Odds).

For a tournament, your winnings -- the chips in the pot, translate to P/BF dollars in prize money, the metric you’re really interested in. Substituting this for P leads to the needed equity under ICM of

eq_icm >= 1/(1+Pot Odds/BF)

Example:
With a pot sized all-in bet of 10, the pot is increased to 20 and your pot odds are 2 to 1; you need 33% chip equity for +cEV in a cash game. For a tournament, if your bubble factor was 1.4, you need for +$EV

eq_icm = 1/(1+2/1.4) = 41.2%.

A reasonable question to ask is why do you need more equity in a tournament; everyone has the same issue? The answer is that EV is relative; you should always be comparing against alternatives. Here, for an all in bet the alternative is folding. In a cash game folding has zero cEV when the baseline stack size is that at the decision point. However, for a tournament, folding ALWAYS has positive $EV. Therefore calling requires a higher portion of the pot to do better than folding, which translates to higher required equity.

http://dokearney.blogspot.com/2009/05/theory-posticmbubble-factor-part-2.html

My Live Mechanics Are Improving

I played a live tournament last night.  No cash again, 23rd of 57.  The good news is that I'm starting to see some improvement in my live tournament mechanics.  I spent a lot more time trying to keep track of the exact pot size, both when I was in the pot and when I wasn't. I'm not good at it, but I'm better than I was a month ago.  Only once did I fold my big blind when I could have checked.  Just a couple months ago I would get confused, lose track of play and make that unnecessary fold five times a night.

I'm improving in another area, but as is often the case when trying to master something, I keep finding more and more things that I need to work on.  I picked up reads on a couple players on my left that were contesting my raises almost every time.  They obviously were just trying to push me off my hands, often while not having strong hands themselves.

I probably should have picked up on what those two players were up to sooner than I did, and more important, after playing for an hour I should have some sort of read on almost everyone at my table, not just two players.

I'm not even close to keeping exact track of the pot size every time, so that will continue to be my main focus for a while, but I will try to generate better reads of my opponents as well.  I have no doubt that once I am able to play full-time, a lot of things that I'm struggling with will start to fall into place.

Trying To Get Something Done

I'm with my mother-in-law today.  I'm usually too tired to play or study at  night after she goes to bed, so I decided to make the most of the time when I'm with her in the living room during the day.  It didn't work.

Even though she was reading the paper most of the time that I was working in the living room,  I couldn't concentrate.  I can't even do something as simple as update my poker records and files with the TV on and directly in my line of sight.  I knew if I kept trying to do it, I would just mess it up.  I have ADD, and I have to accept my limitations.

What is harder to accept is that I'm going to be here 3-4 days of the week and sleep a lot the day I get home--and I'll acomplish nothing poker-related during that time.  I can't continue like this.

I remember listening to radio talk show host Bruce Williams.  He is a self-made millionaire, and one of his callers needed some help with his time management.  Williams said that at one time he was a full-time college student, worked full-time, and still had time for his wife and children.  The incredulous caller wanted to know how he did it.

Williams replied with a question--"Do you watch TV?"  The caller said that he did.  Williams said, "I didn't.  For a year."  Long silence from the caller.  He wasn't happy.  

I'm very resistant to making that decision.  I guess that shows where my priorities are.  There are a lot of TV shows that I really like watching, but if I'm serious about poker, my choice is obvious. I have to be able to play enough, study enough, and keep my records straight, whatever it takes.

Things I'm learning About myself

It continues to be difficult to accomplish much while I'm taking care of my mother-in-law three or four days a week, then coming home and spending much of the next day catching up on my sleep.  I managed to play one live tournament each of the last two weeks.  I'm not making any money, but some of the signs are promising.  I'm going deeper and getting better, but I'm spending a lot of buy-ins doing in doing it.  I need to keep reminding myself that Jonathan Little, a two-time World Poker Tour Player of the Year, talks about how difficult the adjustment from online to live poker can be.  He states that it takes at least 100 live tournaments to fully adjust to the differences.  I guess I can't expect to improve a lot when I've only played live about 40 times in 2014.

As a musician, I continue to discover ways that music and poker are similar. To be a successful musician you have to study and learn the fundamentals of music, but you also need to practice and perform. Poker is no different.

How a poker player should divide his time between playing and studying is a hotly debated topic.  Some pros state that studying should be about 20% of poker time, while others say it should be as high as 50%.  I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the study component of my time this year is way over 50%.  I just don't play enough to make any money at it, or to apply the things that I'm practicing and learning.  When I subtract my expenses from my winnings, I'll almost certainly show a small net loss this year.  My job really isn't poker, it's taking care of my mother-in-law, and it's the right thing to do.  I am fortunate that my wife makes enough to keep us going until we get through this difficult time for our family.

That said, studying is of necessity my main focus while I continue to learn a lot about the live game, my opponents, and my strengths and weaknesses.  I'm now playing tournaments in two different cities.  The players in those cities have very different skills and playing styles. Learning to adapt on the fly to whatever is happening at my table will prove very useful in the long run.

There are three important things that I have learned about myself and my play:

1.  I need to get better at keeping track of the pot size.  I can do a pretty good job of looking at the chips in the pot, estimating the total, and deciding how that affects my decisions.  But I need to do better than that.  Every time someone puts chips in the pot, I should be able to add that in my head and know that the pot size is $13,275 (or whatever the number is.)  Then I can much more accurately calculate the odds that the pot is offering, and make much better decisions.

2.  I need to pay attention even when I'm not in a hand.  I should be using that time to practice a variety of skills.  As stated above, I need to get better at keeping track of pot size.  When I'm not playing, every time someone makes a bet, I should add the amount to the total pot size number in my head.

When I watch the World Poker Tour on television, I know that the players at the final table can do that.  I need to be able to do that.  As I work on paying constant attention to the pot size, I will find myself increasingly able to do the same thing when playing a hand.

Once keeping track of the pot size becomes automatic I can work on other things when I'm not in a hand, for example, I could choose a player and see if I can pick up any tells.  Does Joe used different motions to put chips in the pot with a strong hand than with a weak one?  Does Joan suddenly sit up and pay attention when a card that helps her hits the board?  When I can do that with one player, I can increase the degree of difficulty and watch more players, and again, I will find myself increasingly able to do those things when I'm in a hand.

3.  I have to get more comfortable with taking big risks at the table. There were several times in my tournament tonight that the poker books would say I should have made a certain play, and I know I should have made that play, but I played it safe.

I have to keep reminding myself, over and over and over, that one tournament doesn't matter.  It's OK to make a play when I know that it is very likely to get me knocked out of a tournament, in fact, it's necessary.  I'm playing to make money over a year, not on one night.  A play might not work several times in a row, and get me knocked out of a bunch of tournaments.  But the odds I'm being offered by the pot might be telling me that the few times that I do win a similar hand, the amount of money added to my stack will give me a good shot at going very deep in that tournament.  Winning just one big tournament can, depending on the size of the prize pool, add 5 or 25 or 100 buy-ins to a poker bankroll.  The entry fee for my most recent out-of-town tournament was $50.  First place money was $1,000.

The counterintuitive truth is that poker isn't about how often you cash, it's about total profit over a year or more.  Sometimes 50% or more of annual profit can come from just a few very large cashes.  One player stated on the twoplustwo.com poker forums that during the previous year, more than 50% of his profit came from just 2 large cashes.

That is so counterintuitive that I continue to struggle with the concept.  Of course I should try to cash every time.  I'm want to go out and play poker, and come home with money.  That's what it's all about, right?

No, that's not right.  Math doesn't lie.  Poker is all about the math, and if that math keeps saying that I have to risk being knocked out of tournaments early, I better start listening.

So Much Has Happened

Wow, I can't believe I haven't posted for a month.  So many things have changed that I don't know where to start.  They certainly can't all be tackled in one post, so here are some of the things that have happened during that month. I might be talking about some of them in future (and more frequent) posts:

I'm now playing in both Grand Rapids and Muskegon, and each has advantages and disadvantages.

I was the chip leader in a tournament in Muskegon a couple days ago which had a first prize of $700.   I was the chip leader for about two hours.  I went out in 8th place--seven players cashed.  Players that I've talked to have agreed that my all-in was a very close call under the circumstances, and that folding would have been an equally good, but not necessarily better, choice in that spot.

We have car problems again, and our only car is in the shop as I type this. Having one car is tricky when it's running, and I'm trying to play poker it two cities and move between two residences.

The state of Michigan can't seem to stop making rules which make it harder for both charity poker rooms and the players.

Both of our computers were in the shop at the same time.  We have them back now.

I'll be playing in Grand Rapids

In my previous post, I talked about the need that poker players, especially tournament specialists, have for more and more information on what's going on in the poker world.  We want to know where and when the tournaments are running, how much they cost, what the structure is, how long it usually takes to finish, how deep the structure is, etc.  I found a room, near the city of Grand Rapids, that looks like it will be a good fit for me.

The room has just about everything that I'm looking for, and I'm reasonably certain that I can do well enough there to make up for the travel expense for playing a little farther from home.  I sent an E-mail to the folks that run a room in Walker (a Grand Rapids suburb) and they agreed, at my request, to put a schedule of blinds and antes for each tournament on their web site.

They run a tournament every night from Wednesday through Sunday.  The buy-ins are in a range that is reasonably OK considering my growing, but still inadaquate, bankroll.  Sunday is way too big for me at $125 and Wednesday is questionable--it's only a $20 tournament, but with unlimited $10 rebuys, so I'll wait on that until I find out how many times you have to buy in to stay competitive.  If that number is 3 or less, then it's an option.  That still leaves Friday and Saturday nights, and it looks like the tournaments are fairly deepstacked. I'll know for sure when the blinds and antes are posted on their web site.  I'm usually not on duty with my mother-in-law on either of those days.

Poker Players Need Information

Poker players need information.  I'm not talking about paying attention at the table, or even what we learn when we study.  We need to know what's going on.  We need to know what tournaments are scheduled where and when.  We need a good estimate of how many players there will be, because that tells us how big the prize pool we be.  We need to know if the players are in general good, bad, or average.  We want all of that information and more.

Some casinos, charity rooms, and tournament directors understand that, and they compete for the players by giving them as much information as they can.  Some even have charts showing the blind levels, how long the levels last, and how much the blinds and antes are at each level.  On the other hand some places, especially charity rooms, often won't do this.

Players talk about this.  They ask questions on poker forums.  They read charity room or casino web pages.  They talk to other players.  Players here in Michigan check the Michigan Gaming Control Board web site. They want every bit of information that they can get their hands on.  Here is an example of that information seeking, from the Detroit thread on the twoplustwo.com poker forums:

Q:  update from vision? how many seats did they sell? what was the buyin? what time did it sell out?

A1:  50 seats. Flip is out already. I'm down half a stack. Sold out before 630 I believe. Flip would know.

A2:  Coach there were about 4 2-5 games running all day & all night till I left at 3 in the mornin, and even when I left there were 12 on the list waiting. It's a $500 max 2-5, but the thing I liked about this room was it was a time-rake. Also the games seemed to play pretty deep, I had atleast 4 stacks of 2k on my table, and only 3 or 4 "regulars" in the game, the rest seemed to be from somewhere or another. Solid dealers, room is run well.

Q: Looking to play some live cash during the day near the waterford area.. any rooms open??

A:  300 bowl. Not sure what time they open or if there is any cash running during the day but you can call them to find out.

Players do this constantly.  We want every detail that can be nailed down.  "Where should I play" questions can sometimes dominate several pages of the Detroit thread.  If they can't get the information they want, they will go somewhere else.

I live about 200 miles from Detroit.  There is no poker networking here that I am aware of.  There is no site where people in my part of Michigan can share such information, which is why I spend so much time keeping up with the Detroit thread.  I can at least find out how it's supposed to work.

A few months ago I asked the tournament director at my local room if I could get a printout of, or link to, the levels, blinds and antes.  The TD said that I couldn't do that.  I told him that I know the information is available, because it shows on an overhead monitor when we are playing.  The TD again said that it wasn't possible.

I posted about this on the Detroit thread, and the first response was (not a direct quote, but close, "Are you serious?  He has to give you that information."

In Detroit, the players have clout.  They can, and will, go to another room if they don't get the information that they want.  In a stretch of four contigous counties bordering Lake Michigan there are no casinos and no open charity rooms.  We might have one room open in October.*  We have no clout and unfortunately, the owner of that one available local room knows that.

The web site for my local room, their Facebook page, and direct information from the owner sometimes all conflict with each other.  After I asked the owner about this a few (4?) times, including telling him about information errors on both the web site and the Facebook page, he finally typed, "CLIF JUST STOP"

Since there is little information sharing, the only way to find out about the other rooms is to try them, which in my case would require at least a 35-minute drive.  If it's not a good room or tournament, then I've wasted time and money on a 70 mile round trip.  The nearest casino that deals poker is 103 miles from where I live.  Detroit area players often have no problem driving 40 miles or more to a charity room--but only if they know what they're getting.

Last week there was a tournament 20 miles from me, at an American Legion Post.  I don't think they had done it before.  I hope that the first time wasn't the last time.  I need information, and I need options.

----------

*There might actually be two rooms open, but only one at a time.  One room open Monday through Wednesday, the other Thursday through Sunday.

To travel, or not to travel? That is the question.

This is still another one of the short-term vs. long-term issues, complicated by a lack of reliable information.

I know that when I limit myself to playing live tournaments in one location, I am limiting my options.  I also know that playing in small local tournaments, where first prize might only be ten buy-ins, I'm not going to make a lot of money.

At some point,when I am finally able to play full-time, if I really want to make poker a viable option where I am making more than the average individual income in the United States (about $36,000 if I remember correctly) I have to be willing to go to charity rooms or casinos in other cities, where the first prize is 25 or 50 times the buy-in, or more.  But for now, I have to stick pretty close to home.

Here is the current situation, as I see it:

1. I no long consider The Big Game Room to be reliable, and the information that they put out is often wrong.  I once went to TBGR and found it closed, even though the web page said that there was a tournament running that day.

Due to state meddling and overregulation, TBGR can no longer operate as a standalone business in their own space.  From now on, most of the weekday operations will be at a room in a sports bar, and weekend operations will be at a room at a bowling alley.  Or so they say.

In late August, the TGBR web page said that they were closed for now, but they would post an update after Labor Day.  The update was finally posted several days after Labor Day, and it said that operations would start on 9/18.  That never happened.  A few days ago, they posted on the web page that operations in the bowling alley would start on 10/2.  I'm not sure that I believe anything they say any more.

Information is always either lacking, incorrect, or contradictory.  The web page says that they will be open on 10/2 at the bowling alley.  However, the Facebook page not only says nothing about the new openings and locations, it still shows the old (standalone) address, with a map of how to get there--and the name of the strip mall is misspelled.

I have pointed out the information problems and inconsistencies, and for the most part nothing gets done.  At one time the owner of TBGR told me (this isn't an exact quote but very close) that he wasn't responsible for the web page, and didn't know what was on it.

So, soon there could be poker at a bowling alley that is less than two miles from my house.  Maybe.  It might be a pretty small prize pool if a lot of players check the Facebook page first.

The good news is that there is another option in Muskegon County.  There is a tournament Saturday night in Holton, a city about 20 miles from where I live.  It's a one-shot deal, but they have had their one-day state license in place for about a month, so I can be pretty sure that it's actually going to happen.  TBGR still does not have their state license.

Here's the problem.  Cost matters, and when I enter a tournament, I consider all of the costs, including travel, in this case, the cost of gas for the 40-mile round trip.  I have an account for live tournaments, and also an account for other expenses, including travel.   My Live Bankroll account is only about $450.  My Poker Expense account has about $300. That may sound like a lot of money, but my live bankroll, which I have built from nothing, is not enough money to play ten $50 tournaments.  The minimum bankroll to play MTTs should be about 100 buy-ins.  I don't have nearly that for even $25 tournaments (but you have to start somewhere) but at triple that cost plus travel expenses, it doesn't make much sense.  Or does it?

Again, I have an information problem.  The tournament in Holton could have an entry fee of $75 or it could be $25.  I have played at both levels..  Again, I have no information.  I called the Holton American Legion, and the people that I talked to on the phone either didn't know about the tournament, or knew none of the details.  This seems to be new to them.

Here is a best-case scenario:

1. If it's a tournament with an entry fee at or below $40, it's a lot less risk, because it's a relatively small piece of my bankroll.

2. Since tournaments don't run often in rural areas, it could be a big event for them, attracting a lot of players, and building a big prize pool.  I have seen those situations.

3. If the charities and the American Legion make a lot of  money, they might want to do it again soon.

4. If they become a viable option, it might give TBGR just what they need, competion.  TBGR no longer has the advantage of being a standalone, poker-only, poker-friendly environment.  If TBGR is to be competitive, their will have to up their game and do a better job of giving the players what they want.

If two or three of those four conditions exist in Holton, it will certainly make me think hard about at which place to play  And I will be happy to advise the folks in Holton on how to make themselves a viable option, on behalf of all of the players who are desperately looking for good options.

Learning Less and Winning More

This continues to be an interesting problem.  In my first live tournament since my previous post I cashed again,  3rd of 39 players for $155.  After subtracting the $25 buy-in, $10 add-on and $10 dealer tip, my profit was $120.  That's the good news.  The bad news is that I accomplished that by studying less and thinking about fewer things.

I have been able to play a few online tournaments in the last couple weeks. As stated in my previous post, I'm trying not to learn too much at once, so I've been concentrating on one thing--continuation betting.*

I've been c-betting a lot more in my online tournaments, and I have been succesful in picking up a lot of pots where I didn't have much of a hand.  But when I played live today I had to concentrate once again on the table mechanics, especially keeping track of pot sizes and player stack sizes.  I did a little better at that last night, but it took so much concentration that I never thought once about how often I was continuation betting.  That part of my game was on autopilot.

So, I'm making money when I go to The Big Game Room, and that's definitely a good thing.  But it also brings up an issue that a lot of players deal with, short-term money versus long-term goals.  Studying and learning are for the long-term, and the things that I learn have to be applied at some point.  Poker is all about the long-term, about studying and improving, and being a winner over hundreds of tournaments and thousands of hands.  What happens over a week or a month shouldn't matter at all.

On the other hand, I don't have much of a live bankroll.  I started from zero, when in fact I shouldn't be playing any tournament with under 100 buy-ins (which means a $3,500 bankroll for a $25 + $10 tournament.)  My bankroll is less than 10% of that.

In the short term, these cashes will increase my bankroll, and that's important.  The long-term view is that if I took more risks and brought more skills to the table, I wouldn't cash as often, but I would be a contender to win the tournament much of the time.

Winning money playing poker tournaments isn't about playing to cash, it's about playing to win.  Depending on tournament structures, just a few first places are usually worth  much more than many small cashes.  If I had won my last two live tournaments, I would have cashed for around $1,100.

I'm not good enough yet to win tournaments like this, with many players who study, and talk about strategy with each other.  I don't continuation bet enough to build a big enough stack in the early levels to be a serious contender for first place.  In all of the live tournaments in TBGR where I have cashed, when we got into the money the chip leader always had a stack several times larger than mine.

It's an interesting problem, and it's very strange that I can apply a concept in online tournaments, but then have to ignore that same concept playing live.  As much as is goes against everything I know about playing poker, I have to think about the short-term.  I have to concentrate on my mechanical weaknesses before I try to apply intermediate-to-advanced concepts at a live table.

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*From http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/the-continuation-bet/:

A bet from a player on the flop who raised pre-flop is known as a continuation bet or simply a c-bet. That player has continued to seize the initiative, hence the term, continuation bet. The normal use of the continuation bet is by a player in position against a lone opponent who has checked on the flop. The use of a continuation bet is rooted in the wisdom that most of the time one’s hand does not improve on the flop. Therefore the first player to bet may take down the pot right then and there.

Studying Without Learning Too Much

Even though I can't handle learning a lot of new things, there are still things that I need to keep track of.  I need to follow the 2+2 poker forums, pokernews.com, and pokernewsdaily.com to keep track of what's happening in poker.  I started a thread on Michigan Charity Poker in the 2+2 Poker legislation forum, and I need to watch it for responses.  And I have to do try do this without putting any new poker strategies or ideas in my head.  That's tricky.

If I want to work on just one concept in one of my poker books, I have to use the table to contents to go straight where I need to start studying, and not look at anything else.

One thing that can be exempt from that is memorization.  If I want to learn, for example, what the top 15% of hands, playing all suited connectors and pair, looks like, I can memorize that without messing up my play.  It doesn't require that I watch other players, or do anything else that I have to think about at the table.  When I'm ready, I can apply that at the table.  Once I know what a lot of hand ranges look like then I can watch a player and see if he's playing more or less than that range.  And once I can do that, I can work on how to react to his range given the table and tournament situation.

I've always liked breaking problems into small pieces, and working on one piece at a time.  As a musician I would work on a difficult passage in the music just a few measures at a time, at a slow tempo, then either add more measures or a slight tempo increase, and do it again until I could easily play the section on which I was working.  I see no reason that I can't work on poker the same way.

That probably sounds like a slow, even ponderous way to do things, but if it worked for me in clarinet playing, I don't see why it can't work for poker If I approach each new problem that way, incorporating a new step during each tournament or study session, at the end of a year that's hundreds of small new pieces adding up to several things that I can do well, and that adds up to more money.

Good News and Bad News

The good news is that, with one glaring exception, I'm playing better and getting better results.  I've cashed a couple times at The Big Game Room since my last blog.  One of the dealers even said that he noticed I was cashing more often.

One of the cashes was my best profit to-date in a live tournament: 5th of 40, $35 entry, cash of $155.  That's a profit of $120.  I cashed a live tournament for $165 a few years go, but the buy-in was higher, so the June 28 tournament was my most profitable live tournament to date.

Keep in mind that I have ADD as your read the rest of this.

The bad news is that I'm having a very hard time concentrating at the tables.  I'm learning more and more, with very few chances to apply that that new knowledge at the table, and isn't seriously messing me up.

I've been playing out-of-turn quite a bit and making a lot of other silly mistakes.  It's to the point where I'm getting to be a joke:  "There's Clif, I wonder how long it will take him to open-fold his big blind again."

So my most profitable live tournament was the most frustrating I've every played.  I was so confused and frustrated that I was fighting back tears. I wonder how high I might have finished if I had not made all those mistakes.  As wierd as it sounds, there is too much in my head when I'm trying to play.

Basically what I'm doing is what is called in football "going through my progressions." In football (the American kind) the quarterback goes through his progressions by looking for his #1 receiver, and if he's not open, then he looks for his second and third options.  After a while, that routine becomes almost automatic.  If the quarterback takes to long, he winds up on his back.

That's what happens to me.  I'm going though my progressions, figuring out which of the new things that I'm studying apply to the current hand.  I forget about doing the things I already know how to do, I take too long and make dumb mistakes.  That has to change.

If things are going welI, I might work on just one new thing, such as watching the table for someone who likes to play a lot of speculative hands like small pairs and suited connectors. But that's all.  Just that one thing. The rest will have to wait.  I have to stick with the things that are automatic for me. Reading a new poker book and learning new strategies or doing anything else new will have to be put on hold.

I'm going to cut way back on the studying and spend more time with administrative and trouble-shooting tasks when I'm at home.  Today I'm working on getting my records  my records in better order.  Tomorrow I'll probably try to figure out why I can get to my blog on the desktop computer, but not on the laptop.  As much as I love to learn new things, especially where poker is concerned, I have to slow that way, way down for a while.

Today's Live Tournament

I get to play today at The Big Game Room.  Last week I got a small cash, and I'm hoping to do even better tomorrow.  I should be excited about it, but I'm not.

I didn't want to write this post.  I'm just doing it because I think I should post more than once a week.

Poker is my job, and that's all it is.  A very part-time job, but just a job.  Then fun has gone out of it.  It just hit me that for the first time this year, I'm going to play live poker, and I'm not even excited about it.  It's just something that I have to do.

It's become a grind, not just to play poker, but to manage everything else so that I can even play poker.  Half of my time, usually 3-5 days a week, I'm tied up with my eldercare situation.  The fate of the Michigan charity rooms could be decided soon, either by the courts or the Michigan House of Representatives, but I don't know when, or by whom.

One of the local dealers is looking for a casino job.  He thinks that the owner might get tired of the uncertainty and just close the room.  So here I am, always fighting to manage my ADD, with nothing under my control.  To properly manage my ADD, I need a plan.  I need a structure.  I need to impose organization and discipline.

To that end, about a week ago I decided to once again have a target for my studying, setting it at 20 hours a week. But since I am not home half of the time, there are always things waiting to be done.  One of those things, again due to outside forces, has recently become more urgent, and boom, my schedule and goals are blown up again.

I will play poker tomorrow, and I hope it goes well.  I don't even know what the priorities are any more.  If I hit the studying hard, I can't really apply and practice the things I learn playing a very few hours a week.  If I don't study and practice, I don't get better--but I can barely manage to either study or play, let alone do both.

I'm not depressed, it's more like I'm resigned.  I"m good at objectively analyzing a situaiton.  I'm in an almost impossible spot, with no choice but to keep going, so that's what I'll do.  I'll keep going, with no plan, knowing that if I come up with a one, it probably won't last a week.  That is a very, very bad situation for someone with ADD.

I want to make this work, for me, and for my family.  I"ll keep trying.  I just don't see how I can make anything happen in 2014.  As I see it, the best-case scenario is that it doesn't get worse.  But if the charity rooms close, it will be much worse.

Scientific American and the Skill Game Argument

I have worked things out so that I can play live poker more often.  More about that in a future post.

In a Scientific American article, Jennifer Ouelette states that based on a study of 60 players and 300 hands of poker, poker is a game of luck, with skill having very little effect on the outcome.  Here is my response:


300 players and 60 hands of poker? This is really bad science, or at least bad math.

Evidently Scientific American hasn’t heard about one of the basics of statistics, sample size. Many people know, from hearing public opinion polls discussed on TV, that a poll has to include enough people to be an accurate estimation of the opinions of larger groups.  The same applies to poker.

On the twoplustwo.com poker forums, beginners will often submit some results and ask for an evaluation of their play. The answer is often quick and to the point, something like this:

“Small sample size. Come back when you’ve played at least 10,000 hands.”

60 players over 300 hands?  Meaningless.

Qualities of a Poker Pro

The title of this thread is also the title of a thread on the twoplustwo.com poker forums, where we have been discussing what qualities a player must have be a successful pro.  There seems to be general agreement that experience should be near the top of that list.  I disagree.

I posted the flollowing on 5/25/2014:

Experience matters only to a point. If you have been playing for 10 years, that experience doesn't matter much if you're not doing the right things.

Getting really good at something is hard. There is almost always grunt work to be done, and it isn't glamorous or fun. Yo-Yo Ma, one of the most famous classical musicians in the world (he has played at the White House and been a character on the Simpsons--how many cellists can say that?) has been known to spend six straight hours in his hotel room practicing scales.

What does that have to do with poker players? We have to do our grunt work. We have to memorize odds and outs. We have to know equities, and we can't estimate how much equity we have in a hand unless we can put villian on a range.

I do a lot of brute force memorization. For example, one pro says in his book that when he is playing deep, if the situation is right, he will open with 20% of his hands, including small pairs and suited connectors from every position.

So, I played around with PokerStove. I started with all pairs and suited connectors. Then I added high card combinations until I had 20% of possible hands. I broke that down by position, assuming that the weakest high card hands in that range would be played in the later positions. Then I put those ranges on 7 flash cards (positions 1-5, cutoff and small blind, and button) and I memorized them.

Now when I encounter a player like that (Normad Chad says that Daniel Negreanu has suited connectoritis) I will have a very good idea what his range looks like. Or I could use that range against certain tables or players, or just to change gears and keep everyone guessing.

Of course my way is not the only way. I work a lot with poker books. Others buy very few books and prefer to spend more time on coaching sites. But the truth is that there are lots of people out there that have played for ten years but didn't get better.

Playing for ten years isn't the same as doing the work required to be great. Most of those ten year veterans don't run equities on Pokerstove, or review their hand histories, or learn what a 10% range looks like, or study tells, or sign up for a coaching site. The word for that is fish.

Michigan Charity Poker

On May 17th of this year, I wrote in response to an article in Poker News Daily about the legal battles surrounding charity poker.  There are many points of contention, but those against the charity room are bankrolled by the casinos in Michigan that don't want the competition.

On the other side are the owners, the players, and the charities.

The owners, who are running small businesses, would be squeezed by the new rules.  If rooms close, the players have fewer places to play live poker.  At one time, I lived more than 100 miles from the nearest casino that ran poker tournaments.  Now it's about 63 miles.  I live 8 miles from the local poker room.

The charities would be losers, because if charity rooms start closing, the the money stops flowing to the sponsoring charities.

The issue is currently in the state courts.

That's a quick summary of a complicated issue, so here's a link to the the article:

http://www.pokernewsdaily.com/new-charitable-gaming-rules-take-effect-in-michigan-for-now-25760/

And this is my response to the article:

I am a poker player, it is my job, and I want to know what right state or federal governments have to restrict my ability to make a living. There are already a sizable number of US players who have fled to other countries so that they can more easily play online. There is a Poker Refugee Center (yes, that’s the real name) in Canada.

What is the problem with poker? It’s not illegal. I’m not gambling against “the house.” I play tournaments against other players, I play an entry fee to play, and the players who finish highest win the money, with first place usually getting about 25% of the prize pool.

When I play chess tournaments, I pay an entry fee, I compete against other players, and the players who finish with the most points (one point for a win and half a point for a draw) win the money.

Please explain why poker is regulated so heavily and chess is not.

Poker is a legitimate profession. Professional Poker Player is a US Department of Labor job classification. To become a better player, I watch how my opponents play. I keep up with the latest poker theory through books and online forums. I make decisions based on probabiliy, statistics, and game theory.

So, what happened when I took a risk, become self-employed and tried to make a living playing poker? First, the US imposed banking regulations which made it very difficult to stay in the US market. It is so bad that even though my bank agreed that there is no legal problem, “we just don’t want to mess with it.” My bank, where my wife and I already have three accounts, will not let me open an account for my poker business, whether or not it is designated as a business account.

The current choices for online play are very poor, and the games don’t run often enough for many players to make a decent living. The proposed state regulations of charity poker will do the same thing. This is an attempt to regulate a legitimate business, which many players depend on for their living, out of the market.

Let me address just one of the ridiculous regulations.

Charity rooms will have to cut back from being open from 7 days to 4. Why? What other business is regulated that way? If your business had the usual fixed monthly costs (rent or property taxes, for example) and you were told that you could only open three days a week, how would you react? You might have to consider closing your doors. That is what the charities, the small business owners that run the charity poker rooms, and the players are all facing.

Don’t do this to me! Poker is my job. There isn’t much left for me online, and the charity room 10 miles from my house soon might not be a viable option.

I am in a family rotation to help take care or a 92-year-old relative. I can’t drive 100 miles to the nearest casino and stay for the weekend any time I feel like it. Even if I could, it would be much more expensive than my local poker room, where I can play any day of the week, I can bring my own food and drink, and the only costs I have are the tournament entry fee plus a few dollars for gas.

The proposed regulations need to be relaxed, as the state senate has already voted to do. I urge every member of the house to vote that way as well. Republicans are supposed to be pro-business. Now is the time to prove it.

Poker Always Loses

I got home today from a five-day stretch with my mother-in-law.   Every time that happens, I say, or at least think to myself, "I know I'm doing the right thing but . . . "

The "but" is that taking care of my mother-in-law changes everything, and it has gone on for much longer than I expected.  When this all started, she was 90 and had Alzheimers.  Now she's about to turn 92, and the only thing that has changed is that we are giving her full-time care rather than just checking on her and bringing her meals during the day.

I would like to be more dilligent about posting in my blog, and do it at least every other day, but when I sit down to write, I have no idea what to say.  How about this: "Third day with mother-in-law and I have studied poker for a total of two hours after she went to bed?"  I'm often too tired at night to do any serious studying, and anyway, I can't stay up very late because I have to be up whenever my mother-in-law is awake.

My wife and I had discussed this and agreed that I would play live at least once a week and fit that in on the days that I was home, but that hasn't worked out at all.  In the last two months I've played something like one online SNG, one online MTT and two live tournaments.

My duties with my mother-in-law are a very big deal, but the truth is that it's gone way beyond that. I'm in a situation where nothing else that I do is important.  My time is not valuable, because I'm not making an income, therefore, I can be diverted to anything else but poker with impunity.  My wife has to drive 30 miles to another city for a meeting with her employer?  Not even a question. I want to drive eight miles to work, in my case, the local poker room?  That's probably OK, unless something changes--and something usually does.

Here's a current example.  I have not been able to play a live tournament so far this month.  I looked at the schedule a few days ago, and there were only four possible days that I could play: June 20, 21, 27 and 28.  I was trying to play four times a month, and this month I was already down to only four possible days that I could play.

At least one of those days is probably gone now, because a relative is coming into town, and she has a cute new baby, so that definitely wins.  Certainly no one in the family thought about asking if I had to work (play poker) before that this was set up.  Poker always loses and I've let it happen.  Everyone knows that.  If I can't play a lot and make a lot of money, then why bother?  (The answer, of course, is that I have to play regularly enough to build a bankroll large enough to make some real money.)

The car has to go to see the new baby, so I have to sit in that car and see the baby (or stay home, but certainly not go to a poker room!)  I'm not really making any money playing poker, and I don't have to show up to keep an employer happy, so what I want is irrelevant.  I don't generate an income, therefore my time is not valuable, therefore, my desire to play poker is, from an economics point of view, irrelevant.

No one asks when I want to play poker when the schedule is made.  I work around the duty schedule, and I was OK with that for a while.  But now I realize that I made a huge mistake.  Because I work my job around the duty schedule, that says to everyone involved that I can work around other things as well, because I don't have a "real job" (it's clear that my brother-in-law sees it that way), which means that poker always loses.

The schedule works around birthdays, anniversaries and other events, including the regular game night of another caregiver.  Never, ever, around poker.  I'm 58, and the clock is ticking.  I'm trying to make a living playing a game that takes years of study and practice to master, and I'm running out of time.

No one made an analysis that my need to play poker is irrelevant, but that is in fact the way it works.  If cute baby was coming into town and I had a decent chance of winning at least a thousand dollars in a poker tournament that day, the calculation would be very different.  Poker has, at least until now always been the lowest family priority.  Until I can turn playing poker into something, poker is nothing.

I can't post here about my poker playing, since I almost never play, so I'll probably start cross-posting some of the things I've said on the twoplustwo.com poker forums recently.  Yes, you read that correctly.  I advise other players and I don't even play.

Useless Knowledge?

I don't study poker as much as I should.  When I learn something new, I don't like to think that it's useless knowledge, even if it's something that I can only use once every two or three tournaments.  When I'm able to play more than 200 tournaments per year, either live or online, applying that bit of information can add up to real money.  At least that's the way it should work, but there are two problems.

One problem is that I don't play enough tournaments that a small improvement will matter over the course of a year.  That won't happen until I have control of my time and put in 50 or more hours per week.

The second problem is more immediate.  Since I don't have many chances (tournaments) to apply new things that I learn, trying to add new things to work on at the table is messing up my concentration, and therefore my play.

Poker has a lot of variables.  One of the most popular poker sayings is:  The answer to any poker question is, "It depends."

When I have to make a decision on how much to bet, it can depend on how many chips I have, the current tournament situation, how close I am to making the money, a tell I have picked up on someone, and many other factors.  I understand in general how all of that works, though I have a lot of work to do on some of the math in those situations.

Live poker tournaments have a lot of things that always need to be monitored, and that's the problem.  When I play online, there are numbers on the screen.  Playing live, if five players are in a hand, I have to keep track of all the bets and know how many chips are in the pot at all times.  I also need to keep track of everyone's stack size (how many chips they have), what percentage of hands they are playing, and how close the blinds (forced bets that increase thoughout the tournament) are to going up.

I can't keep track of all of the mechanics yet, and as I learn more and more things that I should be watching for, (for example, the motion a player uses to put chips in the pot can be a tell, especially if it's different that his usual motion), I get so overwhelmed trying to apply everything that I've learned. that in my last tournament, several times I didn't know it was my turn to play until the dealer told me.

If I was playing several tournaments a week, I would have more times to try out the new things I'm learning.   But for now, as counterintuitive at it seems, I have to forget some of the things I know.  If I'm not keeping track of another player well enough to know that his small stack size might force him to go all in on the next hand, then I have no business giving myself more things to think about, such as what kind of tells I should be watching for from other players at the table.

I was overwhelmed during my last tournament.  I managed to cash in third place, but I have to wonder if being confused during the last half hour cost me a chance at first place, which would have been about four times what I won.

In my next tournament I have to keep it simple and concentrate on the mechanics.  Once I can keep up with the mechanics, I can add something small, like watching one or two players for tells.  I have to dumb it down--and that's really hard to accept.  I'm 58 years old.  I don't have 20 years to wait before I start making serious money.

Chaos is Winning

I have only been making about one blog entry a month.  I should do it more often, but I never know what to say.  Poker is a mess, almost everything in my life is out of control, and there seems to be nothing that I can do about it.

There are a lot of things that are going on that, by themselves, might not be a big deal.  But putting everything together, along with the fact that I have ADD, I'm quickly losing my grip.

I am helping to take care of my mother-in-law, who is 91 and has Alzeiheimer's.  I never hesitated when asked to do it, because she's family, and that's what family does.  My wife can't do it, and her brother can't do it, because they have what non-poker players like to call "real jobs" where they have to be on site during certain hours. What started out as checking on my mother-in-law during the day for a few months turned into living with with her full-time three or four days a week. The care that we thought would be necessary for a few months has turned into 15 months.

On the home front, my wife and I decided to make some sacrifices to get all of our debts paid off.  We were already paying extra on some of our debts, and we paid off and closed a credit card account recently.  A few months ago, we decided to get even more aggressive, squeeze the budget even harder, and add an extra $200 a month to paying down our debt.

Again, that was a good idea and the right thing to do.  But when a teenager ran a red light and totaled my car, we didn't have the cash to replace it with another used car, and we decided years ago that we would never have another car payment.  So, I am now without transportation.

The bottom line is that I don't have the wherewithal (time, money, transportation or control of my schedule) to hold everything together.

When I play live poker (about three times a month) I try to present a conservative image, then I play against type by being loose and agressive at the tables.  I go as far as to keep my hair cut short and shine my shoes before every live tournament.  At least that was the plan.  I played last night, without the haircut, because I didn't have the time or transportation to go to a barber.  Except for when I'm playing a live tournament, my wife has control of the car 90% of the time, because she needs it for work, and I do most of my work at home.  Sometimes I can't get the car for days, and that's what happened this time.

When I do some planning, for poker or anything else, it means nothing, because the things I need to do at home pile up, or I'm so tired from my several days with my mother-in-law that I spend half of my first day at home catching up on my sleep.

It's hard for me to be organized as it is, and it's getting way out of control.  I still haven't switched everything over to the Windows 8 computer.  My wife and I agreed on a day when I would do that (June 1st), and the whole day just got blown away by something else.  It had to be taken care of that day, it was for my wife's work and she's the one with an income, so goodbye Windows 8 day.

Charles E. Hummel wrote a short book entitled Tyranny of the Urgent.  He talks about how many of us allow the urgent to prevent us from doing the important. That's exactly what's happening to me.  I mowed the lawn a few days ago when my wife reminded me that we could get fined if our grass was too long--and boom, the tyranny of the urgent blew away my joke of a schedule once again.  (To be honest, I've been pretty lax in my scheduling lately, as there seems to be no point to it.)

Today we are going to the grocery store and the bank and taking care of some other errands.  I will probably get that haircut, at least two weeks later than I wanted to.  At 5 P.M. I start with my mother-in-law again.  I will be there for three days, home for two, then back for another three.

So tomorrow, and several days after, are blown away.  My poker recordkeeping is a mess.  My planning is a joke.  My records are close to the point where updating and fixing them will become urgent, or I'll never catch up and my income tax records won't pass any type of audit.  I can't plan anything, because I don't know when I will get the car, or when I will have six free hours at home when I can play an online tournament, or when I can block out two hours to watch and study a poker coaching video.  To think that I will really be able to devote a full day to changing everything over to Windows 8 seems a cruel joke.

I wish that I could just say that I will devote several hours to my records on Tuesday, and devote Friday to switching everything to the new Windows 8 computer and external hard drive.  But any plans that I make are a sand castle, just waiting to be knocked down when the tides change.

Worst of all, I'm dealing with this while at the same time dealing with ADD.  One of the things I decided early  in my poker decision-making is that I had to impose order on chaos.  I needed short-term and long term plans.  I needed goals.  I needed the right mix of poker play and study. I can't "wing it."  A couple months ago I developed a written business plan--but I haven't kept it updated as fast as cicumstances have changed--another failure.

Chaos is winning.

I'm winging it most of the time now.  My tendency toward disorganization, instead of being managed by a schedule, is being swamped by chaos and uncertainty.  I need to control this, but I have no control over anything.  I feel like every day, I'm bringing a knife a to a gunfight.

Managing My Money and My Time

I have been working on a written business plan on and off for the last three months.  I'm not happy with the way poker has been going.  Mainly because it hasn't going anywhere.  I can barely play at all.

I've been trying to play about one live tournament a week.  That was going OK for a while, but I finally played tonight, after being too tired for tournaments the previous three weeks. I wanted to play, but I knew that I was too tired to start at 7 P.M. and still be making intelligent decisions at midnight.  Also, I'm getting very little exercise, and I can feel the difference.  I'm fat, tired and sluggish.

When I'm with my mother-in-law, I sit, all the time.  She watches TV, and she wants someone with her.  If I'm not in the room with her, she comes looking for me, something thinking that I left her alone.  I'm a physically active person.  When I'm at home, even when I'm watching TV, I often get up and do something during the commercials.  That upsets my mother-in-law, and she usually asks something like "why are you running around like that?" When I watch TV at home, it's usually a show that I'm watching on demand, very late at night when I'm too tired to do anything else.  I have a list of TV shows that I follow, and that's what I do late at night when I'm too tired to play poker or study, but not tired enough to sleep.

When I'm with my mother-in-law, it's not physical, but it's intense.  I have to be up whenever she's up.  She tries to walk out of the house to get the paper or for some other reason, and that's not safe.  I only sleep when she sleeps and the door is locked and chained.  If I can't get to sleep shortly after she does, there is rarely a time that I can catch up on my sleep.  So I'm getting little exercise and not enough sleep.  My first day or two at home is all about catching up on sleep.

When I get home to play a live poker tournament, I'm often too tired to do it.  My ability to do anything (run, study, play poker) is very limited.  This isn't a complaint, as I had a pretty good idea what I was signing up for.  But dealing with the reality is different than simply knowing that it will be hard.  I had to come to terms with that reality and decide what to do it about it.  I'm examining everything that I do, including how I spend my time and money.  Here are two changes that I made:

1.  I subscribed to a poker coaching site.  It's a bargain at $10 a month, and there are over 700 coaching videos covering a variety of specific topics.  Some are hand-by-hand playback of a tournament with expert commentary about each hand.  I will even have a chance to participate in live webinars where I can ask questions or even post a hand for expert analysis during the webinar.

The beauty of this is that I can do this anytime, anywhere, and I don't need a big block of time.  If my mother-in-law gets engrossed in something on television or in the newspaper, I'm going to try to watch a video using headphones. When I think she's asleep I can watch, and if I hear her moving around I can pause the video and finish it later.  I can watch at home when the games are dead on Americas Cardroom.

2.  I decided to work with the live bankroll that I have for now. I let my pride get in the way on this one, and it's time to change course. I put $50 online to start on Americas Cardroom, and I've been messing around with $1 and $3 online tournaments because following strict bankroll management, that's all I'm able to play.  I worked my way up on PokerStars, starting out playing at $1, then $5, then $10, growing my bankroll for a few months before I moved up to a new level, and that was mostly playing part-time.  I should be able to do it again on Americas Cardroom right?

Theoretically, yes.  Practically, no.  The availability of both SNGs and MTTs on Americas Cardroom is very limited, and the hours that I can play are limited as well.  Given my situation and the state of online poker, I realize now that it could take me a year or more to do what I did on PokerStars in a few months.  If I add to my online bankroll, that would allow me to play at higher levels.  If I can play at different levels, that doubles or triples the opportunities to play, it would allow me to play multiple tables at least occasionally, and I can make money a lot faster.

My wife and I get a stipend for helping with my mother-in-law, and I've been putting some of that money toward poker, including building a small bankroll for live poker.  That prority changes starting today.  The best use of that money is to build up my online bankroll instead.  Then, though I have precious few hours that I can play, when I am able to play I will have more options, and I can make much better use of the time that I have.

Making The Technology Pieces Work Together

I have been undergoing a long, very slow process of getting all of my new technology to work together.

 

I have started my new Windows 8 computer, installed a couple online poker sites, and watched a hand on each to site to make sure that everything works.  That doesn't mean that I'm ready to use it.

 

I recently purchased another piece of technology, a one terrabyte external hard drive, to be used both for backing up data, and moving data from the old to the new computer.  After a lot of my own reseach and posts in both poker and computer forums, I still wasn't satisfied with the answers.  I finally went to my local computer shop, and one of their techs told me how to go about it.

 

This isn't about turning things on and making sure they work.  They have to work very well, and I have to do the right things in the right order.  For example, I have to partition the external drive before I use the drive for backup, because data can be lost during partitioning.

 

Everything has to work seamlessly, and there are a lot of moving parts.  I have to transfer my antivirus subscription to the new computer.  I need to install my poker database and heads-up display.  I need to partition the hard drive, back up the Windows 7 data and move the hard drive data to the Windows 8 computer.  I have to move files around on the Windows 8 computer, so that my data (mostly business) and my wife's data (mostly family and home related) will be stored under different master folders.  I have to get my hand histories from the poker sites, and put them in my database.

 

I also have to make sure that all of the different parts work together.  I have to make sure that the database and heads-up display work together.  I need to make sure that my very aggressive antivirus program recognizes and allows both poker sites, the database and the heads-up display.  And all of these steps have to be done in the right order.  I just got an idea that will make this simpler--I'm going to flowchart everything, so that at a glance I can see how everything fits together!

 

You get the idea. I said in a previous post how important it is to make sure that all of the technology works well, all the time.  I keep running into new problems, both small and large.  Last night it took me 20 minutes of googling to find an online manual for my external drive.  The picture on the brochure didn't look anything like what I saw when I opened the drive's dashboard display.  The URL on the little brochure that came with the didn't take me to a manual.

 

I've been working on this for quite a while, but everything has to be right.  If it takes me another month, then that's what it takes. I certainly hope that that is not the case.

 

 

Growing My Live Bankroll

I've said many times in this blog that to play MTTs (multi-table tournaments) I should have a bankroll of at least 100 buy-ins whenever I enter a tournament.

That wasn't hard when I was playing $1 online tournaments on PokerStars.  I put $50 on the site, which didn't give me 100 buy-ins, but it gave me something to work with, and eventually I started growing my bankroll and working my way up.

I would occasionally play a live tournament with a buy-in between $30 and $60.  I didn't have the bankroll for that, but it didn't really matter.  I was just playing live once every few months, and I would do it when a tournament was available and I had the money to do it.

Now I'm taking live poker more seriously, and I try to play once a week at my local charity poker room.  I started playing the cheapest tournaments available, $35 or $40, with no bankroll.  I got some small cashes and was about breaking even, but I quickly realized that I was in effect starting with a bankroll of one buy-in (what I paid to enter my first live tournament at the Big Game Room) and it was going to take forever to build a $4,000 bankroll to play comfortably at that level, let alone move up to higher levels (the largest buy-in tournament at the Big Game Room is $200.)

I get a stipend for living with my mother-in-law an average of  3 or 4 days a week.  She is 91 years old and has Alzheimer's, and she can not live by herself.  I'm saving a lot of that stipend and deciding what to do with it, and eventually a large portion will go toward poker.

I'm investing a little of that money in growing my live bankroll.  Every time I'm about to enter a $40 tournament, I add $60 to my poker bankroll.  When I cash, my bankroll is up $20 plus whatever I win.  When I don't cash, I've still added $20 to my bankroll.

This month I will be playing four live tournaments:  Wednesday the 10th, 17th and 24th and Saturday the 29th.

My current live bankroll is $190.  I have a very long way to go.

I'm Back

This if my first post since October.  I was barely profitable in 2013, and most of the year was a mess.  The main online site on which I play crashes often, has a lot of timing errors (10-minute blinds levels can go for 11 minutes or more) and it generally doesn't work well.  I had lots of computer problems, and virus attacks like I've never seen before.  I think it was in November that I had my wife watch while I played a SNG, and in 5 minutes I got 4 popups from my antivirus program telling me that it had handled an attack on the computer.

It's been very hard to set goals.  I don't know how many hours a week I'll be working, because I'm living half of the time with my mother-in-law as part of a family rotation to keep her home as long as possible, and I never know what the day (or night) has in store.  When I come home from that, my first priority is usually to catch up on my sleep.

We had some unforseen family expenses in the last year or so, and $300 that I had set aside to build a live poker bankroll had to be used for those expenses.  We got a letter from a lawyer about an old debt.  We've been working hard on paying off all our debt, but that one got by me.  My car was totaled by a teenager that ran a red light, and being down to one car limits my freedom to go to live tournaments.  The car that we have required a $600 repair.  We had an emergency fund in a savings account, but that, along with my poker bankroll, took a big hit and we're slowly building it up again.

Losing most of my live bankroll was a huge blow.  For a poker player, money set aside for a bankroll is both business capital and inventory.  The business can't function without it.  To make a long story short,  most of my live bankroll was gone, and I'm down to playing $1 or $2 SNGs and MTTs online  Several years ago, I was playing $11 SNGs on PokerStars, with a 14% return on investment.  According to one of the player rating sites, my results were in the 97th percentile at that level.

Most important, as stated in an October post to this blog, the combination of everything that happened threw me for a loop.  I was trying to be organized about my playing and studying, and about managing the whole thing, but it got away from me.  Having ADD means having a very strong tendency to be distractable and disorganized.  That was me for a couple months. When I'm unable to plan, organize, and impose some structure on my life, things go badly.

Now I'm adjusting to the new normal, with a small bankroll and much less time for poker.  As the saying goes, it is what it is.

There is one thing that's been going well.  I am now playing a live tournaments about three times a month, and I would like to boost that to at least once a week.  That might not be realistic, and I already feel bad about taking time away from my wife when I'm already gone half of the time--but it is my job.  That's a priority decision that my wife and I will probably have to discuss from time to time. I'm learning a lot and making a small profit, and that's more than I expected at first.  Even when I don't cash, most of the time I'm only a few places out of the money, better results than I expected.  But I have to keep three words in mind--small sample size.

Still, while I am doing well consistently, I'm going to enjoy it.  I didn't expect much from live poker for a while, and it's still new to me.  I would have been happy to break even over a few months.  I have played maybe 20 live tournaments over several years, which is nothing considering that online I've probably played over 1,000.  Live vs.online tournaments require different skill sets, but it's coming, slowly.

It took me a couple months to get my head together and deal with all of this.  I took a step back, and I decided to reevaluate everything.  I'm writing a formal business plan, and these are some of the areas I'm working on, many of which will be discussed in further posts:

Playing more tables.  Volume matters in online poker, and those who can play a lot of tables at once can generate a much higher income.

Playing more hours.  I don't have nearly as much time to play, so 40-60 work hour weeks aren't going to happen in the near future.  But I can use the time I have more wisely, and establish realistic, scaled-down goals for both playing and studying.

Playing vs. studying.  Before all of this happened, my goal was to work a minimum of 40 hours a week, with at least 10 hours spent studying.  If I decide that a more realistic total is 15 or 20 total hours, I'm not sure if I still want to aim for something like 75% play and 25% studying.  With limited resources available (in this case, my time) I need to reconsider my priorities.

Managing technology.  I've been steadily upgrading my poker technology.  In the past year or two I've taken steps toward going wireless, including getting a new keyboard and mouse, playing a few SNGs on my wife's laptop while my mother-in-law was sleeping, and upgrading to a 30-inch monitor.  It really hit home recently how important that technology is.

In an E-mail to my father discussing some of these issues, I wrote the following " . . . getting knocked out of just one large tournament when I'm at the final table could cost me as much money as the total cost of my printer, monitor and external hard drive."  I looked at that sentence, and I was stunned at how important and profound it was.  When I start making some serious money, I have to make certain that some of it goes to regular maintenance and upgrading of my technology.  It is absolutely essential for playing online poker at a high level.  As I said to my father, online poker is a high-tech business.

Growing a bankroll.  To play live or online tournaments comfortably (not worrying about going broke, and not playing badly due to playing with "scared money") I need a bankroll of at least 100 buy-ins.  I'm playing at the $40 starter level for live tournaments, which means I should get my bankroll up to $4,000 just to be comfortable playing where I am now.  Moving up can't even be in the discussion.  I will talk about growing my live bankroll in my next post.