Milestone: $500 balance on Juicy Stakes Poker

The balance in my Juicy Stakes Poker account is  $502.08.  Going over $500 is a big deal, giving me twice the amount of the minimum $250 withdrawal.  March has been a pretty good month with just one day left.  I've had a good run over the past few days, cashing five of six times with two $20 cashes.

The results of my last 6 tournaments:

2nd of 58, $20.08
7 of 55, $4.25
23 of 80, no cash
2 of 55, $20.00
5 of 56, $7.25
6 of 81, $5.32

Everything is going well, but more money means more options and some interesting decisions that I have to make.

With a bankroll of $500 I can to play up to $5 tournaments.  In fact, I could take a few shots at going up as high as $10 if I'm careful.  As long as my average buy-in is no more than 1% of my bankroll I'm fine.  I will add a column to my spreadsheet to track my average buy-in.

The wrinkle is that at some point I'll want to take money out.  Let's say that when I hit $600 I decide to withdraw $250.  Then my bankroll would be $350 and my average buy-in at that point would have to be at or below $3.50.  That would allow some shots up to around $6, but certainly not $10.

I want to take money out so that I have some cash in my pocket, but more important, I want my poker business to be self-sustaining.  The way it works now, when I need to spend money for office supplies or a poker book, that comes out of the family budget, which my wife manages.  I subscribe to a poker coaching site (instructional videos and podcasts) that costs $10 a month.  That comes out of my wife's PayPal account.

My wife manages the money very well, and we will soon be completely debt free.  Money is already set aside for our retirement.  I have to make sure that I manage my poker income equally well.

Sometime next year (I'm always thinking at least a year ahead) I want to get some more intensive coaching from Jonathan Little, a World Poker Tour Player of the Year, for $27 a month.  This would be a combination of group coaching online and homework questions about what I would do in different poker situations.  Little would personally read my answers and grade my paper.  One of the best poker players in the world would be grading my papers and giving me advice!  I can't even imagine how much better I would be after a year of that.

I have some good reasons to leave the money alone and keep growing my bankroll, but some equally good reasons to start taking money out.  It's an interesting situation.  I'll get my bankroll up to $600 and probably make some decisions then.  Whatever I decide, growing my bankroll is a very high priority.  A percentage of what I make will always be reinvested in the business.

How I Use Flash Cards To Study

First, I have to correct something that I said in my previous post (I will go back and edit it as well.)  I said that there were some issues that I can't and shouldn't do anything about because I am on the right track.  I do need to do something about the lack of interaction that I have with my family and I intend to.

Now, the main topic:

I've mentioned before that I use flash cards to study, but I never gave any detail about how that works.  The simple explanation is that there are things that happen at the poker table to which I need to know, automatically, how to react.  That could be what my odds are in a certain situation, or some facts that I need to know.  For example:

I need to know if the pot is giving me the right odds to play a hand.  I know that if the action is on me to make a river bet and I have a heart flush draw, the odds are 4.11 to 1 against me getting another heart to make my flush.  Another way to say that is that I will be dealt a heart just over one time in five.

To make that play profitable over a large sample size, if I have to pay 100 chips to make a call, then there should be just more than 400 chips for me to make a profit with that call in the long run.  It doesn't matter whether I make my flush or not in one tournament, but it matters a lot whether I make a correct call in that situation when I see it more than 1,000 times.

I study not just numbers, but situations.  For example, what are good situations for me to make a continuation bet?  To get that answer I went through a poker book and made two bullet point lists of things that I should watch for.  Here are those two lists.

1. Times to consider making a C-bet:

Against two players, both will miss the flop 42% of the time, making a C-bet profitable.
C-bet dry boards.
C-bet-high card boards.
C-bet on all boards where you have a range advantage.

2. Times when a C-bet might not be a good idea:

C-bet less against good players.
Check if you think that villain is likely to fold.
Consider checking with marginal made hands.
Check when the turn is unlikely to make your hand worse.

Next is putting that information on flash cards.  I have a packet of cards with the title, "Hit On The Turns, Odds and Outs."  I just pulled a card out and on one side I printed "7 OUTS." The other side says  "5.72:1," which are the odds against improving my hand on the turn with 7 outs.  An "out" is a card that would improve my hand.  My packet has 20 cards for drawing with anywhere from 1 to 20 outs.

Now yy continuation bet bullet points are on a clipboard that I can see while I'm playing.  Those lists will be turned into flash cards as well.

Finally, if I have those flash cards, what do I do with them?  It's a very old way of learning, but it works for me.

I look at one card, I say (or think) what's on the other side, then I turn the card over to make sure that I was correct.  If I miss one I write 15 times on a piece of notebook paper, "5.72:1 = 7 outs," or whatever the numbers are.  Then I go through the pile again, except that I pull that card out the card that I missed every other time.  For example, I do the 1 OUT card, then pull out the 7 OUTS card, the 2 OUTS card then 8 OUTS,. 2 OUTS followed by 9 OUTS, etc.  I do not memorize things easily. I need to pound information into my head.

That's what I do with my flash cards.  It's not high tech and it's not sexy, but it works.

Alone

My wife and I like to watch the TV show "Alone."  It's a survival show, and there are no gimmicks or complicated rules.  Some people are scattered on a Canadian Island and whoever survives the longest without having to be rescued wins $250,000.  There are no time limits.  If it takes six months or a year before you are the last person standing, then that's how long you will be there.  Contestants are not told when a competitor "taps out."  There are no participation trophies.

I always tell my wife that I would be good at that.  I describe myself as analytical or intelligent or a lot of other things, but more than one test gave my strongest attribute as independence.  When I thought about that, I decided that the tests were correct.  I could be on that show.  I could be alone for a year.  I've pitched a tent at night in a snowstorm and I've built a fire for cooking.

All of that said, my poker routine is starting to get to me.  I have not played live poker since 2016, and I really enjoyed meeting all of the different types of people.  I have played tournaments in my home office, 466 of them in 2017 and 113 so far in 2018.  I've been retooling everything from the ground up.  I started with about $40 in my account on Juicy Stakes Poker, and playing mostly $1 and $2 tournaments, I've built that bankroll up to $464.

I've been very strict about how I play and how I manage my bankroll.  I study at least 10 hours a week and play around 30 hours a week.  I knew all about poker being a long-term game, but I needed to experience for myself what statistical variance feels like over a reasonably large sample size.

I've sacrificed a lot to do that.  I literally don't have any friends, no one that I have lunch with or do things with.  I have been asked a few times who my best friend is, and the answer is always, "I don't have one."  (My wife doesn't like that answer.)  I don't talk to other players unless it's someone on an online poker forum.  Other than my wife, my cats Vanessa Rousso and Callie, and visits from our grandchildren, I barely talk to family members unless it's an occasional post on Facebook, which I check maybe three times a week.  An exciting day in my world happened a few days ago--I was taking the car to the mechanic and I stopped on the way to get breakfast at McDonalds.

I believe that I could last on a island, by myself, for a year, if that's what it took to win life-changing money--but Vanessa and Callie would veto that idea.  I'm told that they cry or stare at the door if I'm gone for an hour.  I also know that what I've done with poker is going to pay off big in the not-too-distant future, but it is starting to wear on me.  I especially feel guilty about the lack of contact with my family.

There is no solution to this and there is no need for one.  I know that I'm doing the right thing.  I love playing poker, and more than that, I want poker to be making a significant contribution to the family finances by the time that my wife retires.  I turned $40 that was sitting on a poker site for two years into $464, and that growth will build on itself much like compound interest.  When my bankroll is a thousand dollars, then two thousand, then three, I'll be able to play higher buy-in tournaments with no long-term risk to my bankroll.*  My poker winnings will grow, just as compound interest grows in a bank account.

I suppose that I will feel a lot better about things when I make my first withdrawal and I have that check in my hand, probably in May.

As always, your questions and comments (see box below) are welcome.

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* Some will read this sentence and respond that poker is gambling and most people lose.  If you know what you're doing poker is no more of a gamble than investing in the stock market.  If I always play with 100 buy-ins behind me I am very unlikely to go broke, that is, my mathematical Risk of Ruin would probably be less than 5%.  If I go on a long losing streak I will simply move down to a lower level where I would have 100 buy-ins, play at that level and work my way back up.  To put it simply, I don't spend money on tournaments that I can't afford.  Players who manage their money that way don't go broke.

A Typical Work Week Detailed

I've mentioned before that I was working on a written business plan.  Forget about that.  There are too many things in play, too many things that can change quickly, to have a detailed plan.  I'm going to talk about that and give you a look at everything that I do in a typical week, if there is such a thing.

When your job is playing poker tournaments, almost everything is a variable.  Sleep is perhaps the most important variable that drives my time.  If I've had plenty of rest I can sometimes play evening tournaments back to back, if the timing works out, and pile up a lot of hours--but one of my rules is not to play when I'm tired.  I'm throwing money down a rathole if I'm too tired to make good decisions at the table.  If I don't play, I don't make money--but if I don't cash because I play badly, I lose money (the amount of my buy-in.)  I have no problem with skipping a tournament when I'm too tired to play.

I almost always work seven days a week, for a total of about 40 hours a week.  My work week starts when my alarm wakes me at 1000 to play a 1014 tournament.  Yesterday I woke up around 0600 and I decided to use some of my free time to finish a Netflix movie that I started the day before.  I used the rest of the time for administrative poker tasks until was time to play the tournament.

The tournament went well but I barely dodged a major problem.  I was playing heads-up when my wife came in with her coat on to tell me that it was time to go to our dental appointment.  Two minutes later I won the tournament and we were on time for out dental appointment.

The tournament schedule is definitely a variable that drives my decisions  It's not just about when the tournament starts.  As shown in the above paragraph, it also matters when the tournament ends.  I can play the same tournament two days in a row and get very different results.  One day I might get knocked out in the first half-hour, while the next day I might play for several hours and get a big cash.

Another variable is what I call my outside appointments.  The best time to play is evenings and weekends, when the most profitable tournaments are running.  That's often hard to arrange.  A few days ago I looked at my calendar and saw a medical appointment on Saturday morning, a funeral in the afternoon, and church on Sunday morning. Yesterday (3/14) I had a dental appointment at 1500.  Tomorrow (3/16) I have a morning appointment to take the car in for service.  I do my best to schedule appointments around poker (or sleep) but the 8 to 5 world doesn't work that way.

There is some order in all of this chaos.  I have two blocks of time when I usually work, late morning and in the evening. The 1014 tournament (the one that my car appointment will blow away tomorrow) is the one that I try to play every day.  That's usually the only thing that I do in the morning, and winning it takes about 3.5 to 4 hours.  After the tournament is done I usually relax and do the things that people with normal schedules do in their free time, like watching TV.

The evening time block is when I do most of my work. There are decent tournaments starting at 1829, 2029, 2214 and sometimes at 2314.  If I'm tired I'll take a nap, skip the early tournament and play one of the late ones.  When I'm not tired I'll play two tournaments.  If  there is dead time between tournaments I either study or take a break.  After my evening tournament time is done (usually after midnight) I usually spend at least half an hour studying..

Below is a spreadsheet of how I spend my time in a typical week.  MTT stands for multi-table tournaments, which is all that I play.

I'm sorry that the formatting is messy, I copied and pasted an Open Office spreadsheet and did my best to make it more readable.  All numbers in the three rightmost columns are hours.

As always, your questions and comments are welcome.

	February 4 to February 10
Date	Event	Start	End	Play	Study	Admin
02/03	$3.30 freezeout MTT	2314	0123	2.25
02/04	Blog post: Business plan ideas	0150	0300			1.25
02/04	twoplustwo.com poker forums	0458	0633		1.50
02/04	Flash cards: odds and outs to hit on the turn	0642	0715		0.50
02/04	$5.50 freezeout MTT	2314	0145	2.50
02/05	$1.10 $100 guaranteed rebuy and add-on MTT	1014	1334	3.25
02/05	$1.10 $100 guaranteed rebuy and add-on MTT	2214	0108	3.00
02/06	$5.50 freezeout MTT	0155	0329	1.50
02/06	twoplustwo.com poker forums	0552	0631		0.75
02/06	$1.10 $100 guaranteed rebuy and add-on MTT	2214	0152	3.75
02/07	twoplustwo.com poker forums	0343	0528		1.75
02/07	$1.10 $100 guaranteed rebuy and add-on MTT	1014	1407	4.00
02/08	$1.10 $100 guaranteed rebuy and add-on MTT	2214	2343	1.50
02/08	Jonathan Little video: Increasing Aggression	0048	0059		0.25
02/08	Video: Jonathan Little 2 $10 heads up sngs	0254	0326		0.50
02/08	twoplustwo.com poker forums	0530	0706		1.50
02/08	$1.10 $100 guaranteed rebuy and add-on MTT	2215	0123		3.25
02/09	Doug Polk poker podcast	1522	1621		1.00
02/10	$0.30 rebuy and add-on MTT	0229	0429	2.00
02/10	Work on 2018 business plan, blog post	0501	0530			0.50
02/10	$1.10 $50 guaranteed rebuy and add-on MTT	0704	0825	1.25
02/108	$1.10 $100 guaranteed rebuy and add-on MTT	1014	0010	2.00
02/10	$3.30 freezeout MTT	2314	2321	0.00
02/10	twoplustwo.com poker forums	2350	0200		2.25
				---------	---------	---------	---------
				27.00	13.25	1.75	42.00
				Play	Study	Admin	Total
					(goal 10 hrs.)		(goal 40 hrs.)

The Downswing is Over

I knew that I would have a lot going on this weekend and I was low on sleep, so on Thursday  I decided to clear out my schedule to be able to get some rest and play two tournaments on Friday night.  I skipped my usual morning (1014) tournament and got that much-needed sleep. I woke up a little before 1800 and played the 1829 tournament.

It went very well.  It would have been great to win it but I didn't quite get there.  I was a $1 tournament in which I finished 2nd of 57 for a cash of $37.09.  The timing worked out very well, because when I was knocked out it was almost time for the 2214 tournament to start.  I finished that one 6th of 80 for a cash of $7.45.

I always try to get in at least 40 hours a week, and playing back-to-back tournaments for a total of 6.75 hours is a good way to pile up some hours.  Also, my Juicy Stakes bankroll, which was a little above $450 before my downswing, is now back in that territory at $440.18.  I hope to hit $500 soon.

February 2018 Results

February 2018 was my best online month since I started my Juicy Stakes bankroll building in January of 2017.  It was my second-best online month ever. I had a good string of small cashes, but it was mostly due to my $120 first place cash in a $5 tournament.  Near the end of the month my balance was over $450 and my profit for the month was well over $150.

Alas, a downswing that started in the last week of February and has continued into early March has knocked my balance down closer to $400 than $450.  Still, February was a great month and if negative variance doesn't beat me up too badly I have plenty of time to turn March around.

The most important thing is that I'm close to the point where I will be able to make the minimum withdrawal and actually see some of that money I've been winning. If all goes reasonably well in the next three or four months my balance will be about $650 and I'll feel comfortable making a withdrawal, while leaving behind a decent bankroll to work with as I build it up to somewhere around $750.   I will get the paperwork for withdrawal documentation ready to go this week so that I''ll be ready when the time comes.

As always, let me know in the box below if you have any questions or comments.

Here are the February numbers:

February
Profit and Loss
$149.52
17 net win tournaments	$238.76
25 net loss tournaments	-$89.24

Milestone: $400 Balance on Juicy Stakes Poker

I see that once again I've been posting less than once a week.  I really need to do better and I will do my best to accomplish that.  I won't promise to do it every day but there is no reason that I can't do it several days a week.

I've been piling up money at a pretty good clip.  My account balance is over $400 now.  As soon as I finish this post I'm going to work on getting the documentation together to qualify for withdrawal.  It's not too complicated, basically they want me to prove who I am and where I live so that they know where to send the check.  This is planning for the near future, I just want everything ready when I decide to pull the trigger.

I want to keep at least $400 in my account for a while.  The long term-plan is still as stated in earlier posts.  I will run it up to around $600, then make the minimum $250 withdrawal.  My second withdrawal will be sometime later in the year when I have at least $600 in my account.  The idea is that to continuously grow my bankroll by leaving more in my account after each withdrawal.  It will work something like this:

First withdrawal: Balance is $650.  I withdrawal $250.  New balance is $400.
Second withdrawal.  Balance is $750  I withdrawal $250.  New balance is $500.

I don't know how often I will withdraw and some of my withdrawals might be more than the minimum.  There are a lot of things that I want or need for my business so I'll probably spend a lot of the money from the first two withdrawals on that.  The main thing is that I continue to make money while growing my bankroll.

Tomorrow's post:  2018 results.

As always, your questions and comments (see box below) are welcome.