Wednesday, September 29, 2010

9/30/2010--The MTT mindset

There is a highly-recommended book on poker psychology, which I have not yet read, entitled The Poker Mindset. That's where I got the idea for the title of this post.

I've played the $1.10, 1000-player MTT that runs at 1720 (PokerStars/U.S. Eastern time) the last two days. The 28th I came in 62nd for a cash of $2.20, and the 29th I was 35th for a cash of $4.00.

First place in that tournament is $180, and I didn't get close to that, but the back-to-back solid finishes are encouraging. To change from a SNG style to an MTT style, I had to reexamine everything: what percentage of my hands to play, how aggressive to be with those hands, when and how often to bluff, and several other aspects of my game. There is a huge difference in strategy between getting one of the three cashing spots in a 9-play SNG, and getting into the top 1% of a field with thousands of players. I needed an MTT mindset.

It's not just a difference in strategy, it's a whole different way of thinking, of approaching risktaking. SNGs were my original specialty partly because the idea of grinding it out with a whole bunch of small cashes with a fairly predictable win rate, best fits my personality.

Now, I'm specializing in MTTs, knowing that I will go many tournaments without much of an income, waiting for the occasional big score. A few months ago, "going for the big score" would have sounded to me like a degenerate gambler tyring to "get lucky".

Once I started out studying on the 2+2 poker forums, I understood pretty quickly that what the MTT players do is every bit as math-based as someone who grinds out an income playing 24 9-player SNGs at a time. The trick wasn't understanding the concept, it was executing it.

I was so averse to the relative high-variance strategy and increased aggression required to play MTTs that I actually had to come up with some hand selection charts, and follow them no matter how uncomfortable it felt, just to get myself used to doing what needed to be done. Without the charts "forcing" me to play a wider selection of hands, I don't think that I could have done it.

Once I started playing more hands, after a few weeks I could start to get a feel for how and why it worked. Again, I understood the concept, but reading about flying an airplane isn't the same as doing it.

Once I got comfortable with a different playing style, then I could start thinking more deeply. I have a long way to go on this, but now I'm starting to think past a list of hands that will be mathematically correct in most cases. Now I starting to be able to think about things like: What if this is a more agressive table than usual? What if it's a tight table? What if the players on my immediate left (the ones that act after I do) are different than the rest of the table--how does that affect how I manage hand selection and agression?

It's an exciting time in my poker development. I know now that I'm going to be a very good MTT player, it's just a matter of time, practice, and a little patience. And once I can get up to playing $2 and $3 tournaments (where of course the prize pools are 2 times and 3 times larger than in a $1 tournament of the same size), there are going to be some fun and lucrative times ahead as I build my bankroll and continue to play at higher levels.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

9/29/2010--The tyranny of the urgent

I'm still having some good runs in MTTs, well into the top 1% of the field, and I'm getting some small cashes. When I don't cash and the bankroll starts to drop, I shouldn't have a problem making a few bucks playing small SNGs to keep the bankroll from dropping too far. I think I'm going to play a lot of small SNGs (mostly STTs, single table tournaments) to keep the bankroll from falling below a certain point. I plan to grind it up to $50 playing SNGs, while still taking a few shots at the MTTs.

However, a few days ago I realized that I don't really have a plan for what happens when I get my next big cash. Let's say for purposes of discussion that I get a $500 cash. $500 is a nice round number, and is there is a $1.10 tournament currently running where 3rd place is $572, so it's not an unreasonable number.

There are a lot of important things that I could do with that money, and, as I'm not contributing much to the family income (I get a small monthly retirement check from the Michigan National Guard), I definitely need to do my share in paying the bills. The problem is that since things are tight for us right now, I risk the danger of falling victim to the tyranny of the urgent.

Tyranny of the Urgent is a brilliant essay written by Charles Hummel in 1967. It is still in print. Hummel says that we are so busy dealing with the "tyranny of the urgent", such as phone calls that we can't or won't ignore (if this was written in 2010, it might have been titled The Tyranny of the Tweet) , or the crisis of the moment at work or home, that we don't take the time to deal with the things that are important--and "urgent" and "important" aren't always the same thing.

That's kind of where I find myself. Paying our bills is urgent. Having food in the house is urgent. But is it really important?

Things are tight, but we're playing the rent. We haven't missed any meals. We are slowly but surely paying down some debt, with the goal of being debt-free and doing everything on a cash basis in the not-too-distant-future. On the other hand, there are things, such as auto maintainance, that we are putting off, and that needs to be addressed.

But one thing is certain. Unless I build my bankroll, and keep building it, I will never generate a decent income playing poker.

Not being able to play anything above $1 tournaments really puts me in a box. There are very few MTTs with a good structure. At higher limits, the choices are much better. Even the $2 level offers much better options than $1, and the higher you play the more (and better) choices there are available.

In addition, as with any business, poker has expenses. I need to keep current, and poker books aren't free. My subscription for Holdem Manager needs to be renewed once a year. Many of the players who have started at the bottom and climbed up to high levels quickly credit their success to online coaching sites, which is not an option when I'm trying to hang on until I get a big MTT cash.

There is another important consideration. I haven't played any live poker in several months. Many of the fields where I play are very weak, and if I played semiregularly, I think that my hourly expectation would actually be higher playing live. Of course, overall I would still make more money online, since live there are only a few live tournaments a week, and they are available only at night. Live tournament specialists don't have the ability to grind for 12 hours a day, but there are some online players that do that.

All that said, how should I divide up that $500 cash? Honestly, I don't know. But there are some things that I have decided:

1. Building my bankroll is the highest priority. With a bankroll of $114 I could starting playing $2 tournaments, and roughly every $55 added to my bankroll would move me up a dollar in buy-ins. So I think I would take $100 right off the top from that first big cash, leave it in my PokerStars account, and build my bankroll to get things going.

2. With my first big cash, I might take out enough to take two shots at live tournaments, which would take about $100, with the idea of building a seperate bankroll for live tournaments. The bottom run of live tournaments, usually around $30, is more expensive than online, but of course, the payouts are correspondingly larger. The minimum cash for a small $30 live tournament would be around $50).

3. Ultimately, I would like to budget, by percentages, based on my monthly income. I can't forget that when self-employed in the US, 30% should be set aside for estimated tax payments. And I don't want to be making any decisions based on the emotion of a family situation, or the excitement of a large cash. Managing an irregular income is difficult for a lot of people, so I want to have a plan before I have to make those decisions, partly to avoid the tyranny of the urgent.

So, once it's rolling, I do know that very few players are successful if they withdraw more than half of theit poker income (other than for saving or investing) so I definitely have to keep that in mind. I don't know what the percentages would be, but for now I would be allocating to something like the following categories (in no particular order):

taxes 30%
bankroll building
owner's capital (amount taken out of a business for owner's salary or other personal use)
family expenses
business/office supplies
live bankroll (until it becomes self-perpetuating)
poker books and magazines
subscriptions (only Holdem Manager for now)

Later, when things are rolling, I might add other categories, such as:

hardware and software
office furniture
more subscriptions, such as coaching sites

But for now, it's back to grinding the SNGs.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

9/26/2010--Results, week of 9/19-9/25

POKER HOURS, 9/19-9/25
Administrative, 3.00
Study, 7.25
Play, 21.00
---------------
TOTAL HOURS 31.25


This is odd. Even though I don't really keep track of my hours every day (that is, I don't post them to my spreadsheet every day) and even though I spent 6 hours with my grandchildren on Saturday, I still wound up just about where I do every week, at around 35 hours.

Somehow I seem to be unconsciously putting in around the same hours every week, no matter what is going on with the rest of my schedule. That means that my schedule isn't really affecting my work hours, and I can only conclude from that that there is no reason I can't work more than I do. So it's 40 hours or bust this week.


PROFIT AND LOSS
Starting bankroll, 9/19 $17.02
Ending bankroll (excluding deposit), 9/25 $26.28
---------
+$9.26
Deposit to PokerStars account, 9/20 $10.00
------------
Bankroll after deposit, $36.28

I had been thinking about doing the minimum $10 deposit to my PokerStars account for a while, and it had nothing to do with the size of my bankroll. When I made my last withdrawl, I found out that my E-check account with PokerStars was considered inactive, since it had been more than 6 months since I used that method to either deposit or withdraw. The only way to get my money was to wait for PokerStars to E-mail me a paper check, which takes about a week.

I decided that when I get my first big MTT payday, I want to have access to the money right away, rather than waiting for a week. So I made the minimum deposit, and now I can deposit or withdraw electronically. The transaction between my bank, the and PokerStars bank which holds player funds, is approved by PokerStars in about a minute.

The next thing is to figure out what I will do will the money when I get a big payday, and that will be the subject of my next post.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

9/23/2010--A deep run

I had a very near miss on a big MTT cash today. I played from 1800-2153, 3 hours and 53 minutes, and finished 108 of 4,535 for a cash of $4.98. The hand that knocked me out was a hand where I bet, villian raised, I went all-in, and he called. It was my KQ against his K9, he got a 9 on the river, made a pair, and knocked me out. Three out of four times (74.928% according to PokerStove), I win that hand and I'm on my way to a nice cash.

If that card had been anything but one of the three remaining 9s in the deck, I would have won the hand and been well above the average chip count, with just over 100 players left. And once you get in the top 100, the payouts go up fast. The final table paid from $36 for 9th place to $714 for 1st.

There is no doubt that I'm on the right track. It felt very comfortable, and I can't think of more than a very few hands (maybe 5) that I could have played better, and none were serious mistakes.

The only thing that did occur to me was that if variance is such that I can easily have a downswing of 50 buy-ins, then I need to play enough MTTs that the long-term (the statistical point at which variance will start to even out) isn't all that long. Something like 75 MTTs a month would probably even out quite a few of the big monthly swings.

75 per month is not even close to attainable right now, because there aren't enough $1 MTTs with decent structures to allow me to play several in a day, let alone 2 or more at a time. Also, because of the family situation, there will be days where it's almost impossible to play an MTT.

For example, we will have the grandchilren for around 5 hours on Saturday. When reaching a final table can take 6 hours or more, the math on that doesn't work very well.

So, for now, I will keep plugging away on the STTs (single-table tournaments), grinding up my bankroll, and playing the MTTs when I can. When I can can play above the $1 level (where the tournament choices get progressively better as you move up), when we get a second computer, and when the family issues are resolved, each of those changes will allow me to play more MTTs.

I guess the bottom line is that I played well today, I gained some invaluable experience playing in the late stages of a very large tournament, and I added to my bankroll. All very good things for my career as a poker player.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

9/23/2010--Results for week 9/12/-9/18

POKER HOURS
Administrative 2.00
Study 3.50
Playing 29.75
--------------
TOTAL HOURS 35.25

Not really much to say. I'm OK with those hours, but I won't be happy until I'm putting in at least 40 a week.

PROFIT AND LOSS
9/12 starting bankroll $52.32
9/18 ending bankroll $17.02
---------------
-$35.30

50 buy-in downswings are pretty normal in any kind of poker. But in MTTs, where very large fields = very large variance, they will be much more frequent.

Unfortunately, I'm making the switch to MTTs when I don't have 50 buy-ins to spare. But the good news is that there must have been an influx of new players into the 1-table SNGs, because they are very soft right now. This week I've played a few to grind my bankroll up a bit, and I've cashed in 7 of the last 10, so by the end of this week I should have something like 20 more buy-ins to play with, and be able to take some more shots at MTTs. I'm only playing one or two MTTs a day right now, concentrating on getting a little wiggle room in my bankroll.

The obvious question is that if I'm making money in these soft tournaments, why don't I just stick to that. The answer is that the payouts are rather small, and the people that make a living playing small SNGs play a lot of then, sometimes 24 or more at a time.

Even if I could build up to doing that, which I doubt, I would need either multiple monitors, or one very large monitor (30-inch or larger) with very high resolution.

So for now, the long-term plan is still MTTs, but I have to concentrate on SNGs for a bit so that I can get my bankroll up enough to withstand the variance of playing the larger tournaments.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

9/12/2010--Results, week of 9/5-9/11

POKER HOURS
Administrative 2.50
Study 7.50
Playing 26.00
--------------
36.00 hours

I'm happy with that number. We had the grandchildren for several hours this weekend, and to be honest, until I got caught up on my Poker Hours spreadsheet and sawtthe total, I wasn't sure that I hit 30. It was a very nice surprise.

Study hours are higher than usual because I got a new poker book, Heads-up No-Limit Hold 'em: Expert Advice for Winning Heads-Up Poker Matches, by Collin Moshman. Besides having written articles for poker publications and for the twoplustwo.com poker forums, Moshman has a degree in theoretical mathematics from the California Institute of Technology.

The book is very dense, with a couple concepts that are entirely new to me, and some concepts with which I am familiar are applied in ways that I hadn't considered.

I haven't finished my first read-through yet. I usually do a quick read of a new poker book, then go through it more slowly, sometimes stopping to work through the ideas in a particular session. But I've had the book for over a week and I'm only on page 129 (of 286), as some of it is so new (perhaps even a revolution in poker theory in one case) that I have to stop and think about what I'm reading and see if it's something I can understand, let alone apply it to my game.

This is one that I'll be reading and thinking about for quite a while. I'm getting new concepts much faster than I can absorb and apply them, but it's a good problem to have. As long as I'm studying and my opponents are not, it's a good use of my time.

POKER PROFIT AND LOSS
Starting bankroll, 9/5, $49.24
Ending bankroll, 9/11 $52.32
--------------------------
+$3.08

I don't have much to say about those results. As I've said in earlier posts, I may not have a lot of big weeks. I hope to get 2 or 3 big cashes per month, but it may sometimes be less than that. Most of the tournaments that I play now are a thousand players or more, and the cashes will come much less frequently. If I'm at least staying even until those big scores come, I'm happy.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

9/9/2010--Results for week of 8/29-9/4

Sorry about getting this done so late. I was out of town over the Labor Day weekend. I got caught up on most of my admin stuff today.

POKER HOURS, 8/29-9/4
Administrative, 3.25
Study, 4.00
Playing, 24.50
--------------
Total, 31.75

I seem to be stuck in a rut of getting around 30 hours a week. I hope I can do better than that, but with the current family situation (which involves custody and visitation of my grandchildren), it's going to be tricky.

Rather than being tied up for a certain amount of the week, it is, from my perspective, even worse. I will still get to see the girls, and I can supervise the visits of their parents (my son and his wife) while this mess is sorted out.

But the other grandparents have temporary custody, they control the day-to-day situation, and it is really important to my playing that the communication is good. I hope that it will be good. I need to know ahead of time what's going on.

We are taking the kids out tomorrow afternoon. We had discussed it earlier, and I just got the call a few minutes ago (around 7:30 P.M.) I was getting, as my wife would say, "freaked out."

I'm starting to have a lot of deep runs in MTTs. I haven't been in the big money, but I've been close, in or around the top 5% of the field. But the $1 MTTs with a good structure only go off a few times a day (there are 4 good ones that start between 6 A.M. and 5 P.M.) I can't get in a situation where I'm 3 hours into a tournament and looking at some serious money, and then the call comes to pick up the kids. I really need to know well ahead of the event. . I can probably take a shot at the 6 A.M. and/or 7 A.M. tournaments it I don't know what's going on that day, but the 11 A.M. and 5:20 P.M tournaments are out unless I know exactly what's going to happen.

I have as alternate possibilites the 90-player SNGs that go off several times per hour, as soon as one fills up. They have a decent structure--not as good as the large MTTs that I mentioned earlier, but not too bad. But even with just 90 players they can take 3 hours to finish. I cashed in one today (8th place) and it took 2 hours and 31 minutes. So my options are really limited, and there isn't much I can do about it if I lose control of my schedule.

POKER PROFIT AND LOSS
Starting bankroll, $63.12
Ending bankroll, $49.24
------------------------
-$13.88

That's not too surprising, and I'm not worried about it. That's the nature of very large tournaments: lots of mincashes or noncashes, with an occasional very large cash which makes up for the losses.

I've always played a mixture of different sizes and types of tournaments, but now that I'm concnetrating on MTTs I'm getting a much better picture of how they run. I feel like I'm getting better by the day, and I've had some fairly deep runs, which bodes well for the future. This month I've had some pretty solid finishes, which have given me enough small cashes to keep me even for the month while I wait for that big cash:

9/4, 53 of 3,847
9/5, out of town
9/6, out of town
9/7, 393 of 6,535
9/7, 212 of 3,784
9/8, 8 of 90

I'm definitely on the right track, knocking on the door just about every day. It should turn out OK if I can get some control of my schedule. I wish that someone else wasn't driving my schedule, but under the circumstances, there isn't much that I can do about it, at least for now.

Saturday, September 4, 2010

9/4/2010--Deepest finish in a long time

I just finished a tournament, after playing for 4 hours and 41 minutes. I think it's the second longest I've ever played in an online tournament. There were 3,847 players, and I finished 53rd. Entry was $1.10 and I won $7.30. I would have preferred $606.67 for first place, but it shows that I'm definitely on the right track.

This month I had played 8 tournaments and not cashed in any of them until now. My cash today got me a good chunk of that money back. That's kind of a miniature version of what it's going to be like as an MTT spoecialist, only usually with more time between cashes, but the cash being worth 25, 50, or 200 buy-ins.

I learned a lot in that tournament, the kind of thing that you can only learn from experience, not from books. I got the feel of how people play in the top 100, and perhaps more important, what kind of stack you need to have to get some respect when you push all-in.

Once we were in the top 100, it seemed that few players wanted to challenge my all-ins (unless they had a top 5% hand) when I had a stack at least 50% of villian's stack. That is, they didn't want to risk losing half their stack to try to knock me out.

Of course this is a mistake. Any time you think you are in the top half of villian's range (that is, you are playing a hand that is ahead of at least 50% of the hands that he would be likely to play in this situation), you should go for it. If you're fighting for the big money, and you're not willing to risk all your chips with what you estimate as a 53% chance of winning, you're not going to see very many final tables.

If you're not willing to push small edges, you're playing the wrong game. You might as well pick up your toys and go home to mommy, wherever everything is warm and safe.