Tuesday, July 13, 2010

7/13/2010--Results for week of 7/4-7/10

HOURS
Administrative 1.75
Study 3.75
Play 14.75
-----------
Total Hours, 20.25


BANKROLL
Starting 7/4, $192.34
Cashout 7/7 $50.00
Ending 7/10, $101.99

Bankroll change, -$90.35
Profit or loss from poker, -$40.35

Disaster is the only word that applies here. Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. My family did a great job of keeping me on edge. We never knew what was going on, or if it was really going on when they said it was. I had a bad run of cards, but that wasn't the biggest problem.

I don't know what to believe from my kids any more. My middle son has been talking for a while about being deployed to Afghanistan, and when he was home, he says he won't be deployed because of medical issues--a bad back. What? The army disagnosed him some time ago, and he planned on being deployed until very recently--and that changed during his leave?

Of course that change didn't effect my poker playing, but the point it that I don't know what's true and what's not. Even with my son back in Alaska (or at least I assume he is, he said he would call when he got there, and he didn't), the uncertainty will continue.

Just before he left, my youngest son wanted to spend some more time with him, so we wound up babysitting two of our granddaughters. This was of course, spontaneous (meaning no notice for my wife and I). We said yes, and they arrived 30 minutes before they said they would, and came to pick them up a little over 30 minutes later than the agreed time.

I should explain here that there is no way that my wife can watch them by herself while I play. We live in a small one-story house and I have ADD. And we can't really explain to a 1, 2, and 3 year old that I'll be on the other side of that door but can't see them because I'm working. Even if they did leave me alone, kids make noise, so having them within 10 feet of me, even if I was wearing earplugs, just wouldn't work. My wife can't take them anywhere, because we don't have 3 child car seats.

I must confess that there is one more thing going on here, and it's on me. I took $50 out of my PokerStars account. That was for my wife's birthday, and she deserved it. She's been very patient, waiting for poker to finally pay off. I have no regrets about doing that.

But the bottom line is that I commited the worst sin a poker player can commit. I tilted. To use the non-poker vernacular, I freaked out. I have a nasty phobia, a fear of heights. But I have one phobia even worse--playing with a small bankroll.

That doesn't just scare me, it terrifies me. I remember that when I was younger my family moved so often that my mother had nightmares about once again having to move and leave her friends behind. That's how scary a small bankroll is to me.

I was a very good part-time player, and built my bankroll to $238 without even trying hard. I just played games that I liked to play, and it happened. I thought it would keep growing forever.

More than two years later, I'm playing full-time, and it's never been that large again. At $215 just a couple weeks ago, I was so close that I could taste it.

When I took out the $50, I was a nervous, but I was confident that I could get it back fairly quickly. Then I hit a bad steak, all of the family stuff happened, and I wound up on a massive losing streak. Before I knew it, I was fighting to stay above $100, and the $3 and $4 tournaments were now out. I'm now bankrolled only to play $1 and $2 tournaments, and my bankroll is borderline even for the $2 tournaments.

I've really baffled about how to deal with some of this, mostly the family part. We love our grandchildren, and we want to see them. But honestly, I don't think there's any way I can tell my son to give me a day's notice before he wants us to babysit. I could, and maybe I should, but most people my son's age just don't think that way.

They don't plan ahead. They don't know that they'll be going to a movie on Friday and will need someone to watch the kids. They don't think about how to plan so they will be back for the kids at the agreed time.

I don't have any good options. I have to work, and if that means laying down some ground rules, even refusing to watch the kids until things change, that certainly seems like the only option. If I was single, I would absolutely do it. However, my wife is already upset that the kids spend more time with their other grandparents (the "party house" mentioned in an earlier post) than they do with us. I'm truly in a no-win situation here.

This is crazy. I can't believe all the stupid things that are interfering with my poker playing--my internet (Comcast Cable) went down twice last week. The second time I was 3rd of 12 in a tournament that paid 7 places. I had good cards (AK preflop), I bet 20% of my stack, lost the internet for three minutes, lost the hand, and just missed cashing (I finished 9th). Murphy's Law was definitely the driving force last week.

I knew from all the admonitions on 2+2 that playing poker as a job is never as easy as you think it's going to be. I wondered sometimes (not often, but sometimes) if I would be good enough, serious enough, smart enough, or even-tempered enough (failed there!) to pull it off through the ups and downs. I never dreamed that so many outside forces would make it difficult.

I'm already a few dollars up since the end of that calamitous week. The slow climb back playing $1-2 tournaments has begun. I just have to stick with it, and deal with the distractions as best I can. I guess the next step is to get my bankroll up to $180, which will allow me to play $3 tournaments again.

I'll probably detail my bankroll management strategy in my next post.

Monday, July 5, 2010

7/6/2010--"Frozen" again

Nothing much to report on the money front. I'm about even this month. That's not the issue right now.


-------------------


Well, one of my sons really did it to me this time (the one on leave from US Army active duty in Alaska). He called and said that he wanted to see his maternal grandmother. He wanted to ride with my wife and I and my wife was working, so I told him to call back at 5. I also told him that his cousin from another state was in town along with her finance. He was excited about seeing everybody. When the cousin found out he was coming, she was excited as well.

I had just finished a tournament. Poker stopped. I starting making phone calls and sending E-mails. The cousin was at an amusement park, my wife was working (and couldn't take phone calls), my son was who-knows-where. I was trying to see if we could fit in a visit with my parents as well, so I was trying to coordinate all this instead of playing poker.

My son didn't call back at 5. I called him twice, and he did not answer. My wife was home now, and she suggested using her phone to call, and he answered right away. Bottom line, he had found a party and was blowing us off. Several hours of poker time lost.

We have seen him, for about 5 minutes, since he got into town. He said hello, we briefly met his fiancee, he announced, "I see you still live in the ghetto,", and he left, to visit his brother's in-laws (the party house). Oh, I almost forgot. During his very brief visit at out place, he pulled out his cell phone and ordered pizza for his next stop.

My other son, the one that lives in town, has also jerked us around lately, though not so egregiously. He's going to be around, something's going to happen and it doesn't--both of my sons understand that I'm a tournament poker player, and that I have to have some block of time to play, when I know what's going on. And that, more important, I don't need blocks of time when I don't play, and it turns out there was no reason for me to wait.

My wife works away from home. I have a home office, and I can supposedly work whenver I want. I envisioned 60 hour weeks. But it isn't happening, not even close. I'm incredibly frustated. I don't know if I'll get 20 this week.

My third son, who lives in Michigan but several hours away, is going to be back in town Friday. This will be the first time in years that my wife and I and all of our sons are going to be here at the same time. And I don't even want to deal with it any more.

My wife is devastated. She has wanted a new family picture for a very long time, but she's afraid to organize it and have someone not show up. She asked me last night if we would see our sons more often if we had alcohol in the house.

I was shocked by that question, but if we kept the beer flowing and opened up our house to all-night parties for my sons and their friends--yeah, I think she pretty much nailed it.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

7/1/2010--June results and comments

Wow, it's been a long time since my last post. As in other things, I need to be more dilligent.

It's been strange over the last month or so. It continues to be really hard to get my hours in, or to be able to set aside an 8-hour block of time to play larger tournaments.

I've had two main problems. One is that there always seems to be something going on. This week, for example, my niece from South Carolina (I live in Michigan) is in town on a surprise visit, so there will be things going on related to that. Also, my son, who is stationed in Alaska with the US Army, will be on his way to Michigan tomorrow.

I don't know when my son will want to visit, or what his plans are, so it's one of those times where I'm "frozen", which is my term for not knowing how to plan. I don't really want my son, who hasn't seen me in a year, to come over and hear, "Sorry, I can't talk now, I'm at a final table." (I have ADD, so I have to be careful about distractions when I play).

That's the downside of being an online poker player. I'm available, and obviously, when family members are coming from far away like they are this week, I'm going to be there. I can't really say that I have to work certain hours, and it's not practical to say that I can't react until I know everyone's schedule. My son and my niece (and their significant others) are going to be out and about, visiting people, doing the things that 20-somethings do--and schedules aren't part of the plan.

The other, even bigger problem has been the weather. There have been a lot of weather situations that have me "frozen" (my term for not knowing how to plan). This weekend there are supposed to be three days of occasional or scattered thunderstorms.

I'm not interested in getting my computer fried, or in experiencing an internet or power outage after paying for several hours and going deep into a tournament. Several times I have played with weather.com open, watching the weather-in-motion radar to try to guess how long I can play before the next storm cell hits, and trying figure out what kind of tournament(s) I can fit into that time block. Or, even worse, sometimes I decide not to play, and the expected storm never comes.

The solution to the weather problem is to have a laptop with an air card, but there is no way I'm going to spend more on poker than I'm making. Even though it's inconvenient not to have that option, I not interested in going into debt, or spending more than I make, to keep poker going. That makes no sense at all. Technological and other improvments will come from my winnings, and if that takes a while, I have to live with that.

Also, I am at fault for not using my time more wisely. When I can't play, there is no reason that I can't spend several hours studying. Too many times, I decide that it's not safe to play, so I watch television. I need to manage my time better.

Now, on to the monthly results:

June 2010 starting bankroll, $193.34.
June 2010 ending bankroll, $215.34.
+$22.00

There are different ways to look at the progress I've made in the first half of the year. I started the year with a $50 bankroll, and now it's a little over $200. On one hand, I've only made a little over $150 in six months. On the other hand, I've quadrupled my bankroll in six months.

I feel really good about where things are going. Some of the things that I've been studying and practicing at the tables are starting to fall into place. I am a slow, systematic, plodding, step-by-step (pick your favorite adjective) learner, and when something major falls into place, it's a big deal. I'm a tortoise, not a hare.

What's really starting to work for me is aggression. Over the last week or so, there have been several times when I've felt like I was pushing people around at the tables. That's new for me.

I'm slowly developing a good skill set. Sometime I win because I'm more patient than my opponents, or because I understand the tournament situation better, or because I keep my composure when they don't, or because I know the math better. But being able to intimidate opponents, to make them fold when I have nothing, to make then think twice about calling or raising because they know that I'll keep betting on every "street" (every time community cards are dealt)--that's an important skill to being a really good player, and I think I'm finally getting it.

I'm expecting $100 weeks to become the norm sooner rather than later. When that happens, the financial part all starts to fall into place. I'll be close to the point where I can withdraw some money from the business for family needs and personal expenses (in accounting terms, withdraw owner's capital), and still be able to grow my bankroll and reinvest in the business.

Friday, June 18, 2010

6/19/2010--Results for 6/6-6/12

POKER HOURS
Admin 0.75
Study 1.25
Play 28.75
TOTAL HOURS 30.75

I should have got this up a lot earlier, sorry about that. In fact, I finished it yesterday, but neglected to published it.

I can't say that I'm happy about my hours. I've cut my TV watching way back, but for some reason I just don't seem to be able to get the hours in. My next weekly report will probably be even worse, as I've already goofed off in the last couple days. I watched all of game 7 of the NBA playoffs, and the second half of the US vs. Slovenia World Cup game. Before that I had not watched a sporting event start-to-finish in at least a month (except for episodes of The Ultimate Fighter, but that's only one hour a week).

That's a lot of goofing off in less than 24 hours. I'll have to get more serious about putting in my poker time.

Of course, the study time is totally unacceptable. That's really almost more important than my playing. It's an investment in being a better player both now and in the future. That has to consistently be at least 10% of my time (for some of the top players, that number is 50%).

POKER PROFIT AND LOSS
Beginning bankroll 6/6, $204.79
Ending bankroll, 6/12, $200.34
-$4.45

Those numbers may make it look like the last week was basically breakeven and uneventful, but it was anything but. I got beat up pretty badly for a few days, and was down to $156.00 at the end of 6/9. That rattled me (something that rarely happens when I play poker) and I lost a little more in other tournaments Then I turned things around and won most of it back the last three days.

I have been reading a lot on the 2+2 poker forums about what a good deal the 180-man tournaments are. I even printed out Sean Deeb's Beginner's Guide to the 180s and started carrying it around with me so I could look it over whenever I had a few minutes.

The 180s on PokerStars and other sites don't pay a lot of places, and the payouts are skewed even more heavily than usual to the top 3 finishers. First place gets 54 times the buy-in, a very unusual pay structure for a tournament that small.

This is exactly the type of structure that a good player likes to see. He doesn't want to waste time on the typical tournaments that pay 15-20% of the field, and pay a bunch of people 2-5 buy-in "almost winner" prizes. He wants to compete for the big bucks at the top.

In this case, we are talking about $4.40 tournaments, 180 players, paying 10% of the field, with 10th through 18th winning $10.64, and the top 3 spots paying $216.44, $144.00, and $85.68. I decided to sit down and play a bunch of them, 2 at a time. I played 9 in a row, and didn't cash in any. That little adventure cost me a quick $39.60.

I knew that $4.40 tournanets were right at the edge of my bankroll requirements, so I thought I better stop at that point, especially since my bankroll situation had, um, changed. But then I thought about it some more, and since I knew that big swings like that are normal in MTTs, I decided to do some math and figure out exactly what I was facing with these tournaments.

I set up a spreadsheet to do some "what if" scenarious. I ran one where my average cash was $20 (a reasonable if slightly conservative estimate, since $20 is near the bottom of the pay scale). With an average cash of $20, it turns out that I would have to cash 28 times out of 100 to break even.

I thought that I had had some bad luck in my 9-tournament losing streak. And even though cashing more than 1 time in 4 seemed daunting, on the other hand I really didn't think that my average cash would be less than $20. So the numbers didn't seem so bad.

Then I thought about it some more. If I'm going to cash 28 times out of 100, that means that there will be 72 times out of 100 where I don't cash. That's enough room for a lot of nasty losing steaks--which, of course, is the reason for having a bankroll in the first place, to weather those storms.

Given the downside risk and a bankroll of $200 (less than 50 $4.40 buy-ins), the math says that I should have stayed away from those for a while. I might take a shot at one from time to time as long as my bankroll is over $200, but I'm definitely not bankrolled to play those things on a regular basis.

Anyway, I abandoned the 180s for a while, played a bunch of 1-3 table, $1-3 tournaments, and broke won back a little over the next few days. Then in my last tournament of the week, starting on Saturday at 11:10 P.M., I played a $2.20 90-man tournament, took second place and cashed for $33.30, winding up almost even for the week!

Online poker can get monotonous sometimes. Last week, that was definitely not the case. Poker as a job is definitely not for the faint of heart.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

6/9/2010--Results for week of 5/30/2010-6/5/2010

WORK HOURS
Administrative 2.75
Study 6.00
Play 31.25
TOTAL HOURS, 40.00

PROFIT AND LOSS
Bankroll beginning 5/30, $170.90
Bankroll ending 6/5, $204.79
+$33.89

I'm still making money, and of course I'm happy about that. And I'm happy that I finally put in 40 hours in a week. But because of things that may need to happen down the road, I really need to keep putting in the hours, and not just playing.

Work hours are not where I would like them to be, but still very much improved. I got 40 hours in, finally, which is not bad. One of my goals is to spend at least 10% of my time in study, and I accomplished that.

The problem is that I'm way behind on the paperwork, and I need to spend more administrative time. There is the day-to-day business to track, but more than that, I don't think the spreadsheet system that I've cobbled together is going to work very well as things get more complicated.

I hope to be withdrawing a percentage of my winnings soon. For every calendar quarter that I make more than $450 (I hope that soon it will be every quarter) I have to set aside 30% for estimated income tax.

Eventually I will be taking money out for taxes, for personal/family use (mostly paying bills), for office supplies, and for reinvestment in the business (poker books, a second monitor, or whatever).

All of this will eventually be divided into live and online play, and run through two checking accounts, and possibly through two savings accounts, to set aside the funds for income taxes. I'm not sure how all this will shake out as far as income tax liability, so until I get a feel for that it's best that I set aside too much for taxes rather than too little.

Every time think about this, it gets a little more complicated.

At the very least, at some point soon I'm going to have to sit down and devote at least 5 hours to figuring out how I want to approach this, and how it's going to all evolve.

For now, I don't have any business accounts, I don't have two bankrolls, I'm not playing live, and I'm not making enough to have to set aside any for taxes. But considering that last year I had a $381 net tournament cash, and a $250 net live cash, I need to start thinking about this now. When I start cashing like that on a semi-regular basis, I'm going to make a real mess if I don't have a system in place to handle it.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

6/2/2010--May 2010 results

Beginning bankroll, $151.45
Ending bankroll, $193.34
+$41.89


I was breakeven most of the month. I had a good week the last full week of the month, as detailed in my previous post. I also had a couple decent days on the 30th and 31st, so overall, a very nice month.


Using strict bankroll management, I am bankrolled for tournaments up to $3.30. PokerStars tournaments are usually "raked" for around 10%, that is, given a tournament entry fee of $3.30, $3 goes into the prize pool and $0.30 goes to PokerStars.


I'm not too far away from being bankrolled for $4 tournaments, which will give me another good option. There are $4.40 (bankroll requirement $237.60), 180-man tournaments that will be a good option for me when I don't have the time to play for hours as a time. Setting aside 6+ hours to play a tournament with thousands of people has been a real challenge.


But these 180-man tournament are long enough, with a big enough prize pool, to have a lot of the characteristics of an MTT. The prize pool is $720, 18 places are paid, and first place is $218.


Overall it was a good month, but there are always things to be worked on that will make this venture more successful.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

6/1/2010--Results, week of 5/23-5/29

HOURS:
Admin 0.50
Study 2.00
Playing 19.75
TOTAL HOURS, 22.25


PROFIT NUMBERS
Bankroll, beginning of week, $136.23
Bankroll, end of week, $170.90
PROFIT, $34.67


I'll deal with the bad part first. I'm not at all happy with my 22-hour work week. I certainly had an excuse--a medical issue in the family. Even so, I've had several weeks in a row where I haven't worked at it for even 40 hours, and that's just not acceptable.

There are poker players who make a lot of money playing part-time, college students in particular. But I'm not there yet. The first step is to build a bankroll, and mine is not yet big enough to win significant amounts of money, which means I am not winning enough to take any out of my bankroll.


A +$35 week is a big step in the right direction, but I can't let up. I have to hit this hard until I have enough of a bankroll to have a little breathing room. I look at my work week something like this:


Any week where I get 40 total poker hours is an OK week.
Any week where I get at least 40 play hours is a good week.
Any week where I play for at least 40 hours, and log 60 total hours, is a great week--and that should be my goal every week.


I look at it this way. I'm basically an entrepreneur trying to get my small business off the ground. Like anyone starting a small business, I should expect to put in a lot of hours to make the business successful.


Now, to the good news of the week. A $35 profit is great news. I finally got through my long breakeven stretch. I knew that mathematically, the statistical variance of that breakeven stretch was bound to end sooner or later. And a 25% increase in my bankroll is huge--I would be wealthy pretty quickly if I could keep that up!


The other reason that this is exciting is that my recently developed Simplified Mixed Game Bankroll Strategy (more details in a future post) allows me to move up $1 in tournament level every time I add a little over $50 to my bankroll. For example, if I am bankrolled to play no higher than $3 tournaments, adding just over $50 to my bankroll keeps my mathematical risk of ruin very low when moving up to $4 tournaments (with their proportionally larger prize pools).


So, even though I'm not happy with my hours, a $35 boost to my bankroll certainly makes this an overall successful week. I'll just have to see if I can get more hours in, and make even more money, this week.