Time to Make the Sausage

When doing something is messy or difficult (like Congress trying to get something done) it is often referred to as "making  sausage."  As you watch my business plan for 2018 come together, it might seem pretty messy.  I will be precise about what I want to do in some areas, such as tracking how I spend my work time.  In other areas I have some ideas, but I have not decided how to include them in a formal business plan.  When you read my business plan updates, keep the following in mind:

"I don't care about flowery writing or winning a Pulitzer.  My job is to be clear for my readers."--Issac Asimov.

These are some of the things that I'm thinking about:

1. I will have a list of rules like the Gibbs Rules on NCIS, but "always carry a knife" won't be on it.

I already know what some of my rules are going to be.  In no particular order of importance:

Don't play tired.

Never miss a hand.

Trust the math.

Trust the process (I stole that one from Marcus Lemonis.)

2.  I need to formalize my on and off study of flash cards.

I study flash cards so that I automatically know what to do when I see certain situations at the table. For example, I know that if I am at a table with 5 other players, I have a 50% chance of being the only one dealt an ace.*  If I have an ace with six or more opponents, someone else probably has one as well, but every player that drops out increases my chance of having the only ace.

That should be easy to memorize.  The most players that can sit at a table, virtual or real, is 10.  That means that there are only nine percentages that I need to know because I will have somewhere between one and nine opponents.

I really have to pound things into my memory to keep them there for the long term.  Instead of just studying flash cards when I feel like it, I will come up with some kind of formal rotation or schedule to make sure that all of my cards get looked at on a regular basis.

3. I need to adjust my bankroll management.

2017 was all about growing my bankroll and always having 100 buy-ins at my level.  This year I will often be playing higher than $1 or $2 tournaments.  The balance in my account is $312.83 and the minimum withdrawal is $250, so I need to think ahead about how much and how often I want to withdrawal, and what to do with that money when I have it.

Whatever I decide I will be continuously growing my bankroll, adding more than I take out..  I probably won't pull the trigger until my balance is over $600.  Variance being what it is, I have no idea how long that will take.  It could be a couple months or it could take much longer.

That's enough sausage making for today.  As always, your questions and comments (see box below) are welcome.

----------

*If you scroll down to the last chart on this page you will see that with five other players at the table, my chance of holding the only ace is 49.6%.

http://www.pokersyte.com/texas_holdem_poker_odds_2.htm