I put this post up yesterday, just reread it, and found several mistakes. I said in this post that I don't play poker when I'm too tired. I guess I also should refrain from posting when I'm too tired. I fixed all of the mistakes I think. Mea culpa.
The taxes are done, I'm actually playing poker again! For the first time in several months, I'm planning on playing a live tournament this weekend. I'm actually going to be playing with real people from Michigan, instead of against avatars from Russia or Argentina!
Bankroll 1/1, $147.33
Bankroll 1/31 $156.59
No deposits to, or withdrawls from PokerStars account
January profit, $9.26
Well, I said that one of my major goals for the year is to have zero losing months, and that if I can do that, everything else will fall into place. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.
A lot of people who don't play tournament poker don't realize how slim the margin can be between not cashing and making some real money. Let's take the example of a tournament that I often play: 27 players, $3.40 entry fee, 5 players cash.
If I finish just out of the money, in 7th place for example, I lose $3.40, the amount of my entry fee. But if at the one-hour mark I could magically change just one bad hand into a good one (or of course leave the hands the same but have myself play just one of them a little better), that might put me in the money.
The prize structure for that $3.40, 27-man tournament is:
5th place, $6.60
4th place, $8.40
3rd place, $14.40
2nd place, $21.60
1st place, $30.00
So, if I had got just a few better hands, or played just a little better, you can see that the swing to the positve side would have been pretty big for that tournament.
Now, a thought experiment. Let's multiply everything by 10. Instead of playing $3 tournaments, I'm playing at the $30 level. Think about how big those swings can be. Oh, by the way, I just checked PokerStars and there is a $530 18-man tournament open for registration.
There are of course tournament that are much larger, and much more expensive, so you can see how massive the swings in poker can be. There are several implications to consider:
1. You have to have the bankroll to deal with the swings. You aren't going to make money every day, or every week. A lot of good players make money every month, but where the variance is high enough, there is no guarantee of a good player doing even that.
There are players on the twoplustwo.com forums who insist that unless you're talking about playing a million hands or more, results mean nothing. I won't go that far, and as it would take me years at my current rate to play that many hands, I certainly hope it's not true. Other players won't discuss someone's results unless they have at least 10,000 hands, and I think that's a much more realistic number. To tell a new player that you can't assess his results until he's played for 5 or 10 or 15 years is absurd.
2. If you're not even-tempered, with a long-term perspective, you're probably playing the wrong game. A couple weeks ago, my wife wanted to see what it feels like to play online. She has never played poker (plus it is considered cheating, under PokerStars' terms of service, to play under someone else's name), so she sat down and I told her what bets to make. I wasn't getting very good cards, so I told her to fold the first four hands, whereupon she announced, "This is boring!", and gave me back my seat. I don't think she will be playing at the World Series of Poker anytime soon.
3. Practice good table selection. Don't let your ego get the best of you. Whenever possible, avoid players that are better than you. If you check out two tournaments that are registering and one of them has a couple sharks, choose the other one.
4. Practice good game selection. All tournaments are not created equal. They can have as few as 2 players (this is called a "heads-up" tournament). At the other extreme, I helped to set a world record (verification pending) by playing an online tournament with over 60,000 players. Some tournaments play faster (the blinds go up faster) and some play slower. There are many other forms of poker beside no limit hold 'em. Some tournaments (usually called "satellites" or "steps") are a chance to win a seat in a more expensive tournament. Like most players, I am better at some formats than others.
5. Don't tilt. Intimidation, trickery and worse can go on in a poker tournament, and you have to be able to keep your composure and not let it change the way you play. 11-time World Series of Poker bracelet winner Phil Hellmuth, in one of his trademark rants, once informed an opponent who took a pot from him, "You're so stupid you don't even know how to spell poker!" But my favorite comes from Australian pro Tony G. who, after taking a big pot from someone who had pictures of his family at the table, yelled, "I'll take all your money, and your children will starve!" Another heartwarming TV moment.
Those guys have no class, but in some places that sort of thing is part of the game, and you better be prepared. When new management took over the bowling alley where I play my live tournaments, they told me that they are clamping down on the rude players to make it more fun for everyone.
I was actually disappointed to hear that. It's about the Benjamins, and I'm not a player that lets that kind of thing get to me. If other players go on tilt and I don't, then I have an edge, and poker is all about looking for small edges that add up to a lot of money over time. If you tilt, you're burning money.
6. Don't play while impaired. I don't drink alcohol, which is definitely an advantage for me. I don't play when I'm tired. If I'm starting to get a little tired, I might wrap up with a short tournament, but I won't play a long one.
I didn't intend to write a book here. It's 7:30 A.M, and I want to play a little longer before I get some sleep. As always, questions or comments are welcome.
In my next post, I will answer the reader question after post #1, "Is there a stereotypical poker personality?"
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