Withdrawal is on Hold

I had no idea that it has been so long since I posted.  I apologize and I will do better in the future.  I'll do my best to put up something new at least every other day.

I decided about a month ago that it was time to take out some of my online poker bankroll.  The situation has changed and I'm not going to do that yet.  This has not been a good month.  I will say more about that when I post my July results.

Unless something miraculous happens in the next three days, July is going to be my first negative month this year.   There is nothing usual about that.  Short-term variance happens.*  In 2017 I had three negative months and still made a profit.  The problem is that I took a hit at about the same time I was ready to withdraw.

I'm in a position where I'm down over $100 this month, the withdrawal amount was going to be $300 and there is a $50 fee for withdrawing.  Again, I'll talk more about this in an early August post, but the gist is that the timing is bad.  I don't want to blow up my bankroll.

August should be a better month for a lot of reasons which will be explained in future posts.  I'll take another look at the situation in early September.  I hope to withdraw then.

A always, your questions and comments are welcome (see box below.)

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*If you want to read a long (34 pages) and nerdy explantion of statistical variance in poker, read this:

https://web.wpi.edu/Pubs/E-project/Available/E-project-102710-152357/unrestricted/DITULLIO.pdf


If you want to keep it shorter and less nerdy read this:

http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/other/variance/

Michigan Players Win Millions at the World Series of Poker

This was posted on Facebook 7/16/2018.

I, along with the rest of the Michigan poker community, am in mourning today. After getting through a field of more than 7,000 players from 62 countries in the World Series of Poker Main Event in Las Vegas. we did not get a winner from Michigan. The final table of nine players included two players from Michigan

Both were knocked out yesterday. Here is the Detroit News story:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/2018/07/14/nic-manion-joe-cada-each-top-2-m-after-busting-out-wsop-main-event/785352002/

World Series of Poker Main Event

Doing this is definitely on my bucket list.  I drop almost everything and watch this for hours every day for more than week.  The article is about a day behind.  Manion (second place) and Cada are still in.  It will be on ESPN tonight (7/13) and tomorrow night at 2200.

https://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/07/2_michigan_men_make_final_tabl.html

Withdrawal Considerations

First, the good news: After I make my first withdrawal I will no longer be subject to a complicated set of rules stating what I need to do to withdraw.  After the first one, I can withdraw as often as once a week, with a minimum withdrawal of $100.  That's different than the first withdrawal, which has a $250 minimum amount.

The bad news: There is a $50 fee for every withdrawal, which was a nasty surprise.  $100 plus a $50 fee doesn't make any sense and I will never do that.  I'll wait until I can cash out enough that the fee isn't such a big percentage of what I withdraw.

My original plan for withdrawals was to take out $300 the first time and split it three ways:

1. Open a bank account for poker expenses.
2. Owners capital, money that I can take out for personal use.
3. A starter bankroll for live tournaments.

I was going to divide the $300 equally, $100 for each category, but as I thought about it I decided that $100 really isn't enough to get any of those areas going.

Another issue is that I'm on a downswing so my bankroll is down.  I'm -$112.70 so far this month.  That's not as big a deal as it sounds.  I've said many times that winning in tournaments usually means a lot of tournaments with no cashes or a very small cash, but a few very large cashes that make up for all of the small losses. For example, in June I failed to cash more often than not, but my biggest cash was $162.  That and a couple other decent cashes drove the month.

I can do some things to tighten up my game a little, but I won't make radical changes.  I trust the process.

Given all of the above I decided the following:

1. I will only take out the first-time minimum withdrawal of $250.  That plus the $50 fee will take a big enough chunk out of my bankroll.

2. $250 is not nearly enough to split three ways.   The poker bank account will have to wait.  I'm going to split the money, probably $100 for owners capital and $150 for live tournaments.

If I play the cheapest live tournaments available in the area, which are $25 or $30, that would give me several shots to start building a live bankroll.  $150 would buy me into five $25 tournaments with a some money left for dealer tips.  Of course I could easily play five tournaments without cashing, but with Americas Cardroom no longer an option, I need to start working on my live game again and I have to start somewhere.  If it doesn't work out, I'll use money from a future withdrawal and try again.

A lot of people think that success in poker involves being smart and getting lucky, but it's not that simple.  I'm running a business and I have to make good decisions, not only at the poker table but also in managing the business.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome (see box below.)