Saturday, March 20, 2010
#18 3/25/2010--Tournament Report #1B (Translation of #17)
ALL EXPLANATIONS WILL BE IN THIS COLOR.
I know that for me it's fun to read tournament reports, and see what the top players are doing and thinking while they play. In fact, there is a book entitled Every Hand Revealed, by Gus Hansen, that is just what the title says it is.
He dissects every hand of a live tournament and tells you what he was thinking as he played every hand. That's one of the poker books that I want to get at some point, but I'm trying to be careful to spend very little money on poker until I've established a regular income.
I actually planned to do this earlier, but in the earlier tournament, I played two hands and was out. I played both hands against a very loose opponent that was playing more than half his hands--in other words, he was bluffing a lot. My average in an MTT is to play around 15% of my hands, so just about any hand I play is ahead of his range, that is, the majority of his hands are going to be behind whatever I play. Usually, even the best players don't know exactly what another player is holding. They are playing against a player's "range." The thought process goes something like this. . . "Joe is a very tight player who usually doesn't open when he is first to act unless he has a big hand. He is probably playing a pair of tens or better, or ace-king." Then, as the hand goes along, further action might allow him to narrow the opponents range. I happened to get in big hands with him twice, both times he happened to have very good hands, and that was that.
There is a problem with doing a tournament report for this blog. Poker players who are reading this will want to see something different than my non-poker playing friends. So I'm going to do this one for the poker players, who understand the abbreviations and want to know details that the rest of you don't understand and/or don't care about.
In my next post, I'll copy and paste this, then insert some explanations/translations for those who aren't members of the poker literati.
PokerStars Tournament #302010964, No Limit Hold'em
Buy-In: $2.00/$0.20 USD
This is the tournament entry fee. $2 goes to the prize pool, and PokerStars gets 20 cents.
3191 players
Total Prize Pool: $6382.00 USD
Starting stack of 3,000 chips
Starting time 2015
2030--Player "jean666" (not her complete player name, I don't "out" bad players online) is rated as a fish by HEM. Holdem Manager is a database program that keeps statistics on your play and that of your opponents. After only 13 hands, she is 77/0/1.4. (She puts money in the pot 77% of the times that she has that option, and raises 0% of the time). No action from me yet, I've been folding bad hands. It's a bad idea to out other players for at least three reasons. First, I took the time and spent the money to play against that player, study her, and take notes. Why should I give that information away free? Second, you don't want to humiliate the bad player and chase them off. Third, a player who is better than I could do the same thing to me.
2036--I still haven't played a hand. In 3 of 15 hands, jean has pushed a player out of the hand with a pot-size bet. It's very unlikely that she has the goods that often. I hope that I get to play a big hand against her before one of us switches tables.
2042--jean called 2 all-ins with T3s (ten-3 suited) and lost about 1/3 of her stack. I would love to catch some cards when she makes a move like that.
2047--I finally played a hand. I called the big blind, flopped 15 outs (fd/gs/oc), and hit my overcard (ace) on the river. My stack is 3,390, and I am 704 of 1,758 players still in, with late registration open until 2130. "Outs" are available cards that could improve your hand. For example, if I have two pair, sixes and fives, there are 2 sixes and 2 fives that are still out there somewhere. And since either another 6 or 5 would give me a full house, I would have 4 outs to improve my hand.
In this case I had a lot of outs because various cards would complete my flush draw, complete my gutshot (aka inside straight draw) or pair one of my overcards (cards higher than any of the community cards that are face up on the table). Sometimes you can have a weaker hand than anyone at the table, but have so many outs to improve that you are a mathematical favorite to win that hand.
2051--Vanessa Rousso got up on the desk, sat on my papers, and had to be evicted. No, my cat, not the poker pro. http://vanessarousso.com/ We needed a name for our new kitten, I was listening to the 2+2 PokerCast, and they named Vanessa as their female player of the year.
2055--I was moved to another table, and never played a hand against jean. :(
2055--Tournament break (5 minutes every hour)
2102--During the break I watched the International Space Station fly overhead. I was able to see it for about 3 minutes. I'm seldom in awe of anything or anyone, but that was an amazing experience! I already have my tournament highlight, that was it! And thanks to my wife for reminding me that it was time to get outside.
2119--After winning a couple small pots, I just lost about half my chips, down to 2,115. Button (the last player to act on every betting round except the first) checked (passed) and I raised with A9s in the small blind, button reraised and I called. A9s (ace-nine suited) isn't a great hand against a reraise, but with so many players playing junk early in MTTs, I tanked ("went in the tank"--stopped and thought for a while), decided it was worth seeing the flop (the first 3 of 5 community cards, which are shared by all the players to make the best possible poker hand) against one opponent, and reluctantly called. The fact that I had already seen bad players push players out of pots several times probably figured in my call as well.
The flop was three undercards, (cards lower than the 2 cards in my hand) button raised. At that point all I had was two overcards (six outs), so I needed to be getting at least 3.14 to 1 odds to call. I folded, and mentally kicked myself for calling a reraise out of position (out of position--one of the first to act, having to make a decison before you see what the other players do) with a good-but-not-great hand. Registration is over. I am 1,765 of 2,000, with 495 places paid.
2122--5 hands later. With AKo UTG+2, ("under the gun" plus 2, the third player to act) there was a raise and a reraise. All of my chips are probably going to wind up in the pot anyway, so it's best to move first, and I shoved (shoved all my chips into the middle of the table, went all in). I am called by AQo and double up. I'm now 867 of 1,822 with a stack of 4,580.
I'm in the top half of the field and just a bit under the average stack size of 5,327. I'm always reasonably happy when I'm in the top half of the field. When I get to the money, I usually do pretty well against players who don't understand when to take chances as the prize money gets bigger.
2127--I looked up "jean666" and she went out in 1,839th place at right about the time I doubled up. One of the things about tournament play that frustrates me the most is when someone like that is throwing her chips away, and I don't get to be one of the beneficiaries.
2133--Another table change. I have not played any hands since I doubled up. I have 4,344 chips (930 of 1,536) with an average stack of 1,536. About 1,000 players to get rid of before we hit the money.
Blinds (forced bets that rotate around the table so that everyone has to put one of the blinds in the pot twice each time around the table) are at 75/150 so my M (the number of times you can go around the table, at the current blind levels, before you run out of chips) is down to 19. I might have to start getting more aggressive soon. At this point my M becomes as important as my place in the tournament. I didn't realize that my M had dropped that far. I might have to reconsider doing any more of these tournament reports, or at least not take so many notes while I'm playing. As I have ADD, it's hard enough to concentrate, and my notetaking probably threw me off as far as keeping track of the tournament situation.
2155--Second break. I've played one hand since my double up and split the pot when we both showed AJo. My M is already down to 6. Wow, this really snuck up on me! I might be looking for a spot to shove real soon. I have 3,535 chips (not many more than I started with). Average stack is 9,039 and my place is 855 of 1,059.
2210--I shoved AQo UTG and picked up the blinds. My M is 7, place is 781 of 953. 500 more players to go before I cash. Of course, as the poker wisdom goes, I "play to win, not to cash", but I need to pick up more chips soon for either to happen. Plus, although it may go against that conventional wisdom, when I'm trying to build a big enough bankroll to generate an income, all cashes are welcome, even the small ones.
2219--I flopped a flush draw and shoved, and I didn't hit. Out in 852nd place. Not much to say in summary. Except perhaps for not watching my stack size closely enough and not getting more aggressive a little earlier, I don't think that I did much wrong. Looking back, it's easy to see the "luck" factor in poker. There were so many places that just one hand playing out a little differently could have made the difference. I was thinking about jean666 playing with garbage and unable to let go of a hand. Just one big hand for me when she was playing could have made a huge difference. But, as another poker saying goes, "Don't be results-oriented." Poker is about making good decisions, and over time, the results will follow.
Some have estimated poker to be about 25% luck (mainly what cards you and your opponents get, and when you get them) and 75% skill. It has been proven mathematically that over time, the best players will win. I will get those pots from players like jean666, my bankroll will grow, and I'll make a good living from this crazy game.I'm really hoping for a big month in April, when I don't have to adjust my sleep schedule and I can basically play, and sleep, whenever I want.
Posted by Poker Clif at 11:53 AM
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Saturday, March 20, 2010
#18 3/23/2010 Tournament Report #1A--for the poker players
I know that for me it's fun to read tournament reports, and see what the top players are doing and thinking while they play. In fact, there is a book entitled Every Hand Revealed, by Gus Hansen, that is just what the title says it is. He dissects every hand of a live tournament and tells you what he was thinking as he played every hand.
That's one of the poker books that I want to get at some point, but I'm trying to be careful to spend very little money on poker until I've established a regular income.
I actually planned to do this earlier, but in the earlier tournament, I played two hands and was out. I played both hands against a very loose opponent that was playing more than half his hands--in other words, he was bluffing a lot. My average in an MTT is to play around 15% of my hands, so just about any hand I play is ahead of his range, that is, the majority of his hands are going to be behind whatever I play. I happened to get in big hands with him twice, both times he happened to have very good hands, and that was that.
There is a problem with doing a tournament report for this blog. Poker players who are reading this will want to see something different than my non-poker playing friends. So I'm going to do this one for the poker players, who understand the abbreviations and want to know details that the rest of you don't understand and/or don't care about.
In my next post, I'll copy and paste this, then insert some explanations/translations for those who aren't members of the poker literati.
PokerStars Tournament #302010964, No Limit Hold'em
Buy-In: $2.00/$0.20 USD
3191 players
Total Prize Pool: $6382.00 USD
Starting stack of 3,000 chips
Starting time 2015
That's one of the poker books that I want to get at some point, but I'm trying to be careful to spend very little money on poker until I've established a regular income.
I actually planned to do this earlier, but in the earlier tournament, I played two hands and was out. I played both hands against a very loose opponent that was playing more than half his hands--in other words, he was bluffing a lot. My average in an MTT is to play around 15% of my hands, so just about any hand I play is ahead of his range, that is, the majority of his hands are going to be behind whatever I play. I happened to get in big hands with him twice, both times he happened to have very good hands, and that was that.
There is a problem with doing a tournament report for this blog. Poker players who are reading this will want to see something different than my non-poker playing friends. So I'm going to do this one for the poker players, who understand the abbreviations and want to know details that the rest of you don't understand and/or don't care about.
In my next post, I'll copy and paste this, then insert some explanations/translations for those who aren't members of the poker literati.
PokerStars Tournament #302010964, No Limit Hold'em
Buy-In: $2.00/$0.20 USD
3191 players
Total Prize Pool: $6382.00 USD
Starting stack of 3,000 chips
Starting time 2015
2030--Player "jean666" (not her complete player name, I don't "out" bad players online) is rated as a fish by HEM. After only 13 hands, she is 77/0/1.4. No action from me yet, I've been folding bad hands.
2036--I still haven't played a hand. In 3 of 15 hands, jean has pushed a player out of the hand with a pot-size bet. It's very unlikely that she has the goods that often. I hope that I get to play a big hand against her before one of us switches tables.
2042--jean called 2 all-ins with T3s and lost about 1/3 of her stack. I would love to catch some cards when she makes a move like that.
2047--I finally played a hand. I called the big blind, flopped 15 outs (fd/gs/oc), and hit my overcard (ace) on the river. My stack is 3,390, and I am 704 of 1,758 players still in, with late registration open until 2130.
2051--Vanessa Rousso got up on the desk, sat on my papers, and had to be evicted. No, my cat, not the poker pro. http://vanessarousso.com/ We needed a name for our new kitten, I was listening to the 2+2 PokerCast, and they named Vanessa as their female player of the year.
2055--I was moved to another table, and never played a hand against jean. :(
2055--Tournament break
2102--During the break I watched the International Space Station fly overhead. I was able to see it for about 3 minutes. I'm seldom in awe of anything or anyone, but that was an amazing experience! I already have my tournament highlight, that was it! And thanks to my wife for reminding me that it was time to get outside.
2119--After winning a couple small pots I just lost about half my chips, down to 2,115. Button checked and I raised with A9s in the small blind, button reraised and I called. A9s isn't a great hand against a reraise, but with so many players playing junk early in MTTs, I tanked, decided it was worth seeing the flop against one opponent, and reluctantly called. The fact that I had already seen bad players push players out of pots several times probably figured in my call as well.
The flop was three undercards, button raised. At that point all I had was two overcards (six outs), so I needed to be getting at least 3.14 to 1 odds to call. I folded, and mentally kicked myself for calling a reraise out of position with a good-but-not-great hand.
Registration is over. I am 1,765 of 2,000, with 495 places paid.
2122--5 hands later. With AKo UTG+2, there was a raise and a reraise. All of my chips are probably going to wind up in the pot anyway, so it's best to move first, and I shoved. I am called by AQo and double up. I'm now 867 of 18,22 with a stack of 4,580.
I'm in the top half of the field and just a bit under the average stack size of 5,327. I'm always reasonably happy when I'm in the top half of the field. When I get to the money, I usually do pretty well against players who don't understand when to take chances as the prize money gets bigger.
2127--I looked up "jean666" and she went out in 1,839th place at right about the time I doubled up. One of the things about tournament play that frustrates me the most is when someone like that is throwing her chips away, and I don't get to be one of the beneficiaries.
2133--Another table change. I have not played any hands since I doubled up. I have 4,344 chips (930 of 1,536) with an average stack of 1,536. About 1,000 players to get rid of before we hit the money.
Blinds are at 75/150 so my M is down to 19. I might have to start getting more aggressive soon. At this point my M becomes as important as my place in the tournament. I didn't realize that my M had dropped that far. I might have to reconsider doing any more of these tournament reports, or at least not take so many notes while I'm playing. As I have ADD, it's hard enough to concentrate, and my notetaking probably threw me off as far as keeping track of the tournament situation.
2155--Second break. I've played one hand since my double up and split the pot when we both showed AJo. My M is already down to 6. Wow, this really snuck up on me! I might be looking for a spot to shove real soon. I have 3,535 chips (not many more than I started with). Average stack is 9,039 and my place is 855 of 1,059.
2210--I shoved AQo UTG and picked up the blinds. My M is 7, place is 781 of 953. 500 more players to go before I cash. Of course, as the poker wisdom goes, I "play to win, not to cash", but I need to pick up more chips soon for either to happen. Plus, although it may go against that conventional wisdom, when I'm trying to build a big enough bankroll to generate an income, all cashes are welcome, even the small ones.
2219--I flopped a flush draw and shoved, and I didn't hit. Out in 852nd place.
Not much to say in summary. Except perhaps for not watching my stack size closely enough and not getting more aggressive a little earlier, I don't think that I did much wrong. Looking back, it's easy to see the "luck" factor in poker. There were so many places that just one hand playing out a little differently could have made the difference. I think about jean666, who was playing garbage and couldn't let go of a hand. Just one big hand for me when she was playing could have made a huge difference.
But, poker isn't about results, it's about making good decisions. Some have estimated poker to be about 25% luck and 75% skill. It has been proven mathematically that over time, the best players will win. I will get those pots from players like jean666, my bankroll will grow, and I'll make a good living from this crazy game.
I'm really hoping for a big month in April, when I don't have to adjust my sleep schedule and I can basically play, and sleep, whenever I want.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
#17, 3/16/2010 Weekly Summary
Week of March 7-13, -$5.00
March 1-March 13, +$19.97
Last week got away from me at the end. There were a couple times when I was about to cash, took a risk to move up (playing to win, not to cash) and it didn't work out. Still, it's the right play in the long run, so I'm not too upset about it.
All one can do it poker is make good decisions and ride out the variance until things turn around. And, as I've always told my wife, daily results don't matter, and weeks don't matter very much. All that matters to me is whether I'm up at the end of the month, and by that measure I'm on the right track.
My next post will be a tournament report.
March 1-March 13, +$19.97
Last week got away from me at the end. There were a couple times when I was about to cash, took a risk to move up (playing to win, not to cash) and it didn't work out. Still, it's the right play in the long run, so I'm not too upset about it.
All one can do it poker is make good decisions and ride out the variance until things turn around. And, as I've always told my wife, daily results don't matter, and weeks don't matter very much. All that matters to me is whether I'm up at the end of the month, and by that measure I'm on the right track.
My next post will be a tournament report.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
#16, 3/9/2010 Still going well; bankroll management
It occured to me that I should start both numbering and dating my posts, for easier reference. I didn't do either when I started out.
Week of 2/28 through 3/6, +$14.80
Last three days, 3/6 through 3/8, +$20.57
Bankroll end of 3/8, $150.37
I would like to do better than this, but as far as bankroll growth, if in my down months (daytime schedule) my bankroll goes up by $100, that would be a decent result. And since I've been a winner as high as $10 in the past, those targets are definitely achievable.
I moved up to $4 tournaments when I had 50 buy-ins, which is a bit low if I mix in many larger tournaments (which of course have greater variance), so I'm going to start adding an extra buy-in for each dollar that I move up. So before I move up, to start the process of getting my mathematical risk of ruin down to something like 2%*, I'm going to wait to move up from $3.30 to $4.40 maximum buy-in until I have $4.40 x 51 = $224.40.
My bankroll is over $150, so by bumping it an average of $25 a week I will be able to play at $4.40 in 3 weeks. It should be sooner than that, since in April I will be on my night schedule, and should get more playing hours and make more money.
Of course as I move up in buy-in level, the prize pools will get bigger, and I will win more money, and I will start building my bankroll for the next level up, again requiring one extra buy-in. When I get to $5 I'll start thinking about when I can start taking money out to help with the family bills.
It's an interesting balancing act--start make a small contribution to the family budget (say, $25 a month) once I start playing $5 tournaments, which will slow down my bankroll building. Or I can wait, build my bankroll more quickly, and contribute $100 or more a little later.
Of course, there is a third option. I might make a big cash in a tourament. Last year I won $250 cash in a live tournament (first out of about 50 players), and a $384 in an online tournament (5th of 2,200).
That big score will happen again sooner or later, but I have to be careful when it does. I don't want to move up in levels too fast. Rocketing through the levels because of a couple big scores can be dangerous, because you don't take the time to gain experience at each level. You don't get to know the players, but more than that, moving up too fast can put you in tournaments against much better players before you're ready.
Whatever happens with my bankroll, I'll follow a suggestion that I read on the 2+2 forums to spend a month at each level. (When the writer used the word "level" he was talking about $5 or $10 jumps, but since I'm not even back up to $5 yet, I'll have to think a little smaller.
I'm back on track now, and I'm not about to screw it up.
* The truth is that I can't really accurately calculate my risk of ruin. I have very small samples sizes over many types and sizes of tournaments, so trying to calculate my ROR would be statistically meaningless. But I know that with the types of tournaments that I play and the size of my bankroll, my ROR is way over 2%, and I need to bring that number down much closer to zero.
Week of 2/28 through 3/6, +$14.80
Last three days, 3/6 through 3/8, +$20.57
Bankroll end of 3/8, $150.37
I would like to do better than this, but as far as bankroll growth, if in my down months (daytime schedule) my bankroll goes up by $100, that would be a decent result. And since I've been a winner as high as $10 in the past, those targets are definitely achievable.
I moved up to $4 tournaments when I had 50 buy-ins, which is a bit low if I mix in many larger tournaments (which of course have greater variance), so I'm going to start adding an extra buy-in for each dollar that I move up. So before I move up, to start the process of getting my mathematical risk of ruin down to something like 2%*, I'm going to wait to move up from $3.30 to $4.40 maximum buy-in until I have $4.40 x 51 = $224.40.
My bankroll is over $150, so by bumping it an average of $25 a week I will be able to play at $4.40 in 3 weeks. It should be sooner than that, since in April I will be on my night schedule, and should get more playing hours and make more money.
Of course as I move up in buy-in level, the prize pools will get bigger, and I will win more money, and I will start building my bankroll for the next level up, again requiring one extra buy-in. When I get to $5 I'll start thinking about when I can start taking money out to help with the family bills.
It's an interesting balancing act--start make a small contribution to the family budget (say, $25 a month) once I start playing $5 tournaments, which will slow down my bankroll building. Or I can wait, build my bankroll more quickly, and contribute $100 or more a little later.
Of course, there is a third option. I might make a big cash in a tourament. Last year I won $250 cash in a live tournament (first out of about 50 players), and a $384 in an online tournament (5th of 2,200).
That big score will happen again sooner or later, but I have to be careful when it does. I don't want to move up in levels too fast. Rocketing through the levels because of a couple big scores can be dangerous, because you don't take the time to gain experience at each level. You don't get to know the players, but more than that, moving up too fast can put you in tournaments against much better players before you're ready.
Whatever happens with my bankroll, I'll follow a suggestion that I read on the 2+2 forums to spend a month at each level. (When the writer used the word "level" he was talking about $5 or $10 jumps, but since I'm not even back up to $5 yet, I'll have to think a little smaller.
I'm back on track now, and I'm not about to screw it up.
* The truth is that I can't really accurately calculate my risk of ruin. I have very small samples sizes over many types and sizes of tournaments, so trying to calculate my ROR would be statistically meaningless. But I know that with the types of tournaments that I play and the size of my bankroll, my ROR is way over 2%, and I need to bring that number down much closer to zero.
Saturday, March 6, 2010
#15 A good start for March
So far in March:
March 1, -$11.00
March 2, +$14.81
March 3, +$4.40
March 4, +$5.40
March 5, +$2.56
Things are definitely looking up.
When playing poker online, 7 days a week, every day is pretty much the same. In my last post I thought that I was writing on Saturday. This is actually Saturday. Oh well, I'm easily confused I guess. So Sunday is tomorrow, and I'll be working on my goal to get in at least 30 hours a week the rest of the month while I'm on my daytime schedule. Since I will have smaller blocks of time to work with, I'll spend more time on studying and administrative matters, and less on acutally playing poker.
By the end of the month I should be caught up with my recordkeeping and have done some good studying. In April I'll switch to my night schedule, getting up around noon and playing late at night, and it will be all about playing.
There are times when I can't believe the small amounts of money I'm playing for. In 2008 I was playing $10 tournaments, and now it's $1-$3 tournaments. But the situation is what it is, and I have to keep things in perspective. Winning small amounts builds my bankroll now, so that I can player higher later.
There was a tournament on March 4th where I had an interesting decison to make. I played a $3.40, 27-player tournament with the following payouts:
5th $6.60
4th $8.40
3rd $14.40
2nd $21.60
1st $30.00
We were down to 6 players and I had AJo (the "o" stands for offsuit, that is, two cards of different suits.) AJ, suited or not, is a very big hand against 5 opponents.
I raised, another player instantly reraised, and I knew that he had a big hand as well. So, either I folded, or we would probably wind up all in, with one of us getting knocked out one spot from the money. We wound up all-in, he showed TT, and I was on the wrong end of the classic "coin flip" that you see in televised poker, with the two overcards (me) having about a 45% chance to win against the underpair.
In this particular coin flip, I was actually a little weaker, with about a 43.5 chance to win. (I didn't memorize that number, I just ran it through the PokerStove software). I lost the hand, and missed the money. The thing is, even if I knew what he had before I went all in, it was probably still the right decision.
Poker players use a mathematical concept called Expected Value (EV). When deciding whether to make a play like this, "Is this the right play?" is the wrong question. The right question is, "Over a statistically valid number of trials, what is the decision that will make me the most money?".
In this case, the cards say, "fold", but the prize structure says, "all in!" In most poker tournaments, a large chunk of the prize pool goes to the top three finishers. It is better to take risks to get a few big cashes than to play it safe and win many small prizes.
With this payout structure, if I played 4 times and squeaked in for 5th place all 4 times, I would win $26.40, which would be a nice addition to my bankroll. But if I took more risks and cashed just once, for first place, I would win $30!
The poker saying for this is, "You play to win, not to cash." That's what I did, and even though I came away with nothing, it was still the right decision.
March 1, -$11.00
March 2, +$14.81
March 3, +$4.40
March 4, +$5.40
March 5, +$2.56
Things are definitely looking up.
When playing poker online, 7 days a week, every day is pretty much the same. In my last post I thought that I was writing on Saturday. This is actually Saturday. Oh well, I'm easily confused I guess. So Sunday is tomorrow, and I'll be working on my goal to get in at least 30 hours a week the rest of the month while I'm on my daytime schedule. Since I will have smaller blocks of time to work with, I'll spend more time on studying and administrative matters, and less on acutally playing poker.
By the end of the month I should be caught up with my recordkeeping and have done some good studying. In April I'll switch to my night schedule, getting up around noon and playing late at night, and it will be all about playing.
There are times when I can't believe the small amounts of money I'm playing for. In 2008 I was playing $10 tournaments, and now it's $1-$3 tournaments. But the situation is what it is, and I have to keep things in perspective. Winning small amounts builds my bankroll now, so that I can player higher later.
There was a tournament on March 4th where I had an interesting decison to make. I played a $3.40, 27-player tournament with the following payouts:
5th $6.60
4th $8.40
3rd $14.40
2nd $21.60
1st $30.00
We were down to 6 players and I had AJo (the "o" stands for offsuit, that is, two cards of different suits.) AJ, suited or not, is a very big hand against 5 opponents.
I raised, another player instantly reraised, and I knew that he had a big hand as well. So, either I folded, or we would probably wind up all in, with one of us getting knocked out one spot from the money. We wound up all-in, he showed TT, and I was on the wrong end of the classic "coin flip" that you see in televised poker, with the two overcards (me) having about a 45% chance to win against the underpair.
In this particular coin flip, I was actually a little weaker, with about a 43.5 chance to win. (I didn't memorize that number, I just ran it through the PokerStove software). I lost the hand, and missed the money. The thing is, even if I knew what he had before I went all in, it was probably still the right decision.
Poker players use a mathematical concept called Expected Value (EV). When deciding whether to make a play like this, "Is this the right play?" is the wrong question. The right question is, "Over a statistically valid number of trials, what is the decision that will make me the most money?".
In this case, the cards say, "fold", but the prize structure says, "all in!" In most poker tournaments, a large chunk of the prize pool goes to the top three finishers. It is better to take risks to get a few big cashes than to play it safe and win many small prizes.
With this payout structure, if I played 4 times and squeaked in for 5th place all 4 times, I would win $26.40, which would be a nice addition to my bankroll. But if I took more risks and cashed just once, for first place, I would win $30!
The poker saying for this is, "You play to win, not to cash." That's what I did, and even though I came away with nothing, it was still the right decision.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
#14 The solutions
Here we go--some of the problems that I detailed in my last post, and possible solutions.
1. The biggest problem is that I'm just not playing enough.
This is a tough one to solve, at least for now. I'll get more hours in during April, when I switch back to my nighttime schedule. When I'm in my home office, that will get me a few more hours. If I close the door and wear earplugs, I won't hear the TV or much else of what is going on.
But for now, I need to stop beating myself up about not getting the playing hours in when I'm on the daytime schedule. If I don't have long enough time periods to play good tournaments during the day, I'll concentrate on studying or administrative work, and maybe I can get 30 or 35 hours in some weeks, even if a lot of it isn't actually playing. That won't make a lot of money in the short-term, but the increased study time will certainly improve my profits in the long run.
2. My game selection hasn't been good.
My intentions were good--maximizing the use of my time, and playing as much as I could. But all tournaments are not created equal, and I understand (supposedly) the importance of game selection. As mentioned in the previous section, there is plenty of studying and recordkeeping that I can do during the time between tournaments. I've only finished 6 of the 50 test questions in Harrington on Holdem, Volume 3, the Workbook. It's time that I get on that, and find out exactly wear I stand on Harrington's scoring system.
3. I've let my study and administrative time slip. I've been so focused on getting the hours in that I have badly neglected administrative and study time.
I addressed this in the previous paragraph. When the tournaments aren't good, I have to study or keep up with my records. It's that simple.
Since I am a goal-oriented person, for the rest of this month, starting tomorrow (Sunday March 4th) I'm setting a goal of 30 hours of poker time per week, regardless of how that time is divided up. I really need to grow my bankroll, but I can only do what I can do.
I'll report back on how this works out.
1. The biggest problem is that I'm just not playing enough.
This is a tough one to solve, at least for now. I'll get more hours in during April, when I switch back to my nighttime schedule. When I'm in my home office, that will get me a few more hours. If I close the door and wear earplugs, I won't hear the TV or much else of what is going on.
But for now, I need to stop beating myself up about not getting the playing hours in when I'm on the daytime schedule. If I don't have long enough time periods to play good tournaments during the day, I'll concentrate on studying or administrative work, and maybe I can get 30 or 35 hours in some weeks, even if a lot of it isn't actually playing. That won't make a lot of money in the short-term, but the increased study time will certainly improve my profits in the long run.
2. My game selection hasn't been good.
My intentions were good--maximizing the use of my time, and playing as much as I could. But all tournaments are not created equal, and I understand (supposedly) the importance of game selection. As mentioned in the previous section, there is plenty of studying and recordkeeping that I can do during the time between tournaments. I've only finished 6 of the 50 test questions in Harrington on Holdem, Volume 3, the Workbook. It's time that I get on that, and find out exactly wear I stand on Harrington's scoring system.
3. I've let my study and administrative time slip. I've been so focused on getting the hours in that I have badly neglected administrative and study time.
I addressed this in the previous paragraph. When the tournaments aren't good, I have to study or keep up with my records. It's that simple.
Since I am a goal-oriented person, for the rest of this month, starting tomorrow (Sunday March 4th) I'm setting a goal of 30 hours of poker time per week, regardless of how that time is divided up. I really need to grow my bankroll, but I can only do what I can do.
I'll report back on how this works out.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
#13 This one is hard to write
Online bankroll January 1, 2010--$147.33
Online bankroll February 1, 2010--$156.39
Online bankroll March 1, 2010--$122.40
Results for February, -$24.93.
Results year-to-date, -$33.99.
When I'm down for the year after two months, it's obviously time to take a hard look at this situation, and figure out what went wrong. A future post will be about what I can do to fix it.
The biggest problem is that I'm just not playing enough. When I'm on the daytime schedule it's especially difficult. Playing mostly late at night, I didn't seem to have a much trouble playing 35 or more hours a week. Now I'm struggling to get 20 hours in.
February was unusual, in that I was ill for more than a week. I wasn't deathly ill, and frankly, there have been other jobs for which, in the same situation, I would have just gone to work.
Poker is different. With a "regular" job (unless perhaps you are in something like commissioned sales), you can go to work, be a little off, and still get paid. In poker, if you get distracted and misplay one hand, that can cost you a tournament. If you don't being your "A game" all the time, it can cost you.
Other than that special circumstance, I have taken a hard look at things, and this is how I see it.
1. Playing less has made me subject to statitical variance. By that I mean that poker is about winning over time. In poker, a short losing streak (a few buy-ins or a thousand hands) means nothing. It is often said in the twoplustwo.com poker forums that results over a smaple size of less than 10,000 hands are statitically meaningless.
So, it could be that my results, especially for February, are not at all a reflection of how well, or how poorly, I've been playing. I should be moving into my home office soon, probably this week, so not playing in the living room will definitely help me to play more hands. Still, there are things other than how many hours I'm playing that need to be addressed.
2. Playing during the day is much more difficult. When I was getting 35-40 hours of playing time a week, a lot of those hours were between midnight and 6 A.M. I've been on my daytime schedule, or "church schedule", for about a week and it's going to be much harder to get the hours in until I switch back, probably around April 1. Also, the choices are fewer. There is a large multitable tournament at my buy-in level about once an hour bewtween 5 P.M. and midnight (PokerStars/Eastern US time). Today there was ONE such tournament available between 7 and 11 A.M.)
Players in the twoplustwo.com poker forums are always told that if they are thinking about playing poker full-time, they better be ready to explain to their families that they have to work nights and weekends, because that's where the money is.
Some of the daytime busyness I can control, and some of it, I can't. At 4 A.M., there isn't much going on. At 4 P.M., the world doesn't stop so that I can play poker.
3. My game selection hasn't been good. When I'm not getting the hours in, whether it's a short day or a short week, that limits the tournamnets in which I can play. The tournaments with the "slower" structures, that is, the tournaments where the blinds (forced bets that you must make every nine or so tournament hands) don't go up as quickly, are much better suited to my playing style.
Tournaments with a slower structure tend to have bigger fields and take a lot longer. Basically, if I have less than three hours to play, I have to find something else.
Also, when I have only a few hours to play at a time, I'm pressing to fill the time. When I have a choice between two tournaments, I'll take the one that is about to start, rather than waiting 10 minutes for the one where the structure is slightly better for me. When I only have two or three hours to play, I don't want to "waste time". But when I'm trying to build a bankroll, "wasting time" is better than wasting money, and there are other ways that I can use that time.
4. I've let my study and administrative time slip. I've been so focused on getting the hours in that I have badly neglected administrative and study time. I haven't been posting to my Work Hours spreadsheet, after all, I know I'm not getting the playing hours in, so why work on the spreadsheets and have those numbers stare me in the face. Poor me.
It is true that many of the things that affect my playing time, such as the daytime interruptions, affect study and administrative time as well. On the other hand, when I only have a couple hours free, rather than looking for a tournament (any tournament, whether I have an edge or not*) I could have used that time working on a few of the test problems in Harrington on Holdem, Volume 3.
Well, I've identified the problems. Next time, the solutions.
*One could argue that it's sometimes OK to play breakeven poker, especially when the player can earn enough PokerStars Frequent Player Points to get rewards such as poker books or free entry to online tournaments.
Working poker VIP programs is a complicated subject which can be both situational (am I close to having enough points this month to move up to a higher VIP level?) and player-dependent. Let's just say that it will be a long time before I can do this with my points:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIa2JIx2TE
Online bankroll February 1, 2010--$156.39
Online bankroll March 1, 2010--$122.40
Results for February, -$24.93.
Results year-to-date, -$33.99.
When I'm down for the year after two months, it's obviously time to take a hard look at this situation, and figure out what went wrong. A future post will be about what I can do to fix it.
The biggest problem is that I'm just not playing enough. When I'm on the daytime schedule it's especially difficult. Playing mostly late at night, I didn't seem to have a much trouble playing 35 or more hours a week. Now I'm struggling to get 20 hours in.
February was unusual, in that I was ill for more than a week. I wasn't deathly ill, and frankly, there have been other jobs for which, in the same situation, I would have just gone to work.
Poker is different. With a "regular" job (unless perhaps you are in something like commissioned sales), you can go to work, be a little off, and still get paid. In poker, if you get distracted and misplay one hand, that can cost you a tournament. If you don't being your "A game" all the time, it can cost you.
Other than that special circumstance, I have taken a hard look at things, and this is how I see it.
1. Playing less has made me subject to statitical variance. By that I mean that poker is about winning over time. In poker, a short losing streak (a few buy-ins or a thousand hands) means nothing. It is often said in the twoplustwo.com poker forums that results over a smaple size of less than 10,000 hands are statitically meaningless.
So, it could be that my results, especially for February, are not at all a reflection of how well, or how poorly, I've been playing. I should be moving into my home office soon, probably this week, so not playing in the living room will definitely help me to play more hands. Still, there are things other than how many hours I'm playing that need to be addressed.
2. Playing during the day is much more difficult. When I was getting 35-40 hours of playing time a week, a lot of those hours were between midnight and 6 A.M. I've been on my daytime schedule, or "church schedule", for about a week and it's going to be much harder to get the hours in until I switch back, probably around April 1. Also, the choices are fewer. There is a large multitable tournament at my buy-in level about once an hour bewtween 5 P.M. and midnight (PokerStars/Eastern US time). Today there was ONE such tournament available between 7 and 11 A.M.)
Players in the twoplustwo.com poker forums are always told that if they are thinking about playing poker full-time, they better be ready to explain to their families that they have to work nights and weekends, because that's where the money is.
Some of the daytime busyness I can control, and some of it, I can't. At 4 A.M., there isn't much going on. At 4 P.M., the world doesn't stop so that I can play poker.
3. My game selection hasn't been good. When I'm not getting the hours in, whether it's a short day or a short week, that limits the tournamnets in which I can play. The tournaments with the "slower" structures, that is, the tournaments where the blinds (forced bets that you must make every nine or so tournament hands) don't go up as quickly, are much better suited to my playing style.
Tournaments with a slower structure tend to have bigger fields and take a lot longer. Basically, if I have less than three hours to play, I have to find something else.
Also, when I have only a few hours to play at a time, I'm pressing to fill the time. When I have a choice between two tournaments, I'll take the one that is about to start, rather than waiting 10 minutes for the one where the structure is slightly better for me. When I only have two or three hours to play, I don't want to "waste time". But when I'm trying to build a bankroll, "wasting time" is better than wasting money, and there are other ways that I can use that time.
4. I've let my study and administrative time slip. I've been so focused on getting the hours in that I have badly neglected administrative and study time. I haven't been posting to my Work Hours spreadsheet, after all, I know I'm not getting the playing hours in, so why work on the spreadsheets and have those numbers stare me in the face. Poor me.
It is true that many of the things that affect my playing time, such as the daytime interruptions, affect study and administrative time as well. On the other hand, when I only have a couple hours free, rather than looking for a tournament (any tournament, whether I have an edge or not*) I could have used that time working on a few of the test problems in Harrington on Holdem, Volume 3.
Well, I've identified the problems. Next time, the solutions.
*One could argue that it's sometimes OK to play breakeven poker, especially when the player can earn enough PokerStars Frequent Player Points to get rewards such as poker books or free entry to online tournaments.
Working poker VIP programs is a complicated subject which can be both situational (am I close to having enough points this month to move up to a higher VIP level?) and player-dependent. Let's just say that it will be a long time before I can do this with my points:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIa2JIx2TE
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