Monday, January 25, 2010

Short-term results mean nothing

Current bankroll: $167.36

I guess this is why you need to have a bankroll. Pretty much everything has gone wrong since my bankroll has hit $200. I am having all kinds of software issues--with Holdem Manager (my poker database program), and to a lesser extent with other programs. After a lot of back and forth with Holdem Manager technical support, I finally had to make an appointment with an HEM tech to remotely take over my computer and fix the problem.

These programs really aren't costing me a lot of money, in the sense that I'm losing. They are just taking way too much of my time, and limiting how many tables I can play. I aim for about 35 hours of playing time a week, about 5 hours studying, and a couple hours of administrative (mostly recordkeeping) hours each week. But this is going to be my third week in a row with a total of less than 30 hours.

Plus, 5 hours out of 40 is way too little study time. Many of the very successful (6- or 7-figure income) online pros spend as much as 50% of their time studying. I want to bump study hours to least 10% for me sometime soon, but that will have to wait until I have a bankroll that can generate at least a minimal decent income, with enough left for quarterly estimated tax payments.

That said, my bankroll is doing anything but going up lately. I have gone around 15 straight tournaments without cashing. Only a couple of them had more than 45 players, so this is extremely unusual. It's just been one of those times when everything goes wrong. I've been in first place in a 27-man tournament for over an hour, went completely card dead at the end, and wound up finishing out of the money. I had another tournament where within an hour I had aces twice against one opponent, and I lost both times (the second time knocked me out.)

And to top it off, I missed a full day of playing because Vanessa (our rescue kitten who would have been named Doyle if it was male) knocked over a glass of milk and fried my keyboard. The new Microsoft keyboard is OK, but I liked the Dell a lot better.

At times like this, all I can do is tell myself that the losing streak is statistical variance, and that it happens to everyone. All I can do is keep playing until it turns around. After all, it was just the opposite as I closed in on $200. In a span of 10 $2 tournaments, I had 3 cashes that were around $20 each. A poker player has to be even-tempered, not getting too worked up about the good days or the bad.

If you're going to be a professional poker player, you better have a long-term perspective. I am mildly interested in how well I do in a week, but really, I just want to come out ahead every month. If you like to focus on short-term results, DON'T PLAY POKER!

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