The Master Plan, Part 1 of 2--How Poker Works

I realize that a lot of my readers, including my new readers from Eye Care One in Muskegon, might be puzzled by some of my blog posts.  It must seem odd that I've been playing for quite a few years, but now I'm writing about the low-level tournaments that I play.  After all, I play a lot of  $1 tournaments.

To explain that, which I will do in part 2, I first have to explain how poker tournaments work, and how difficult it is to make a profit.  In part two I will explain what I've been doing since 1/1/2017 to increase my profits.  I will explain how I turned $40 into $900 while investing nothing on top of the starting $40.  That process is called "building a bankroll."

It's hard to make money playing poker.  A small number of players make a living at it. A very few become the millionaires that you see on televised poker shows.  Most players, including some touring pros, make little or nothing.

I've only played online lately, but I hope to get back to playing some live poker soon.  In either case, it works the same way.  I will use a $10 tournament as an example, but the numbers work the same way whether it's a $1 or $1,000 tournament.

Usually about 15% of the field will cash, so for a $10 tournament with 100 entrants, 85 players won't cash.  In fact, since each player has to pay a 10% fee to enter the tournament, most will actually lose $11, the $10 entry fee (which goes into the prize pool) plus the 10% rake that goes to the poker room or online site.  For online tournaments, this would be listed as a "$10 + $1" tournament.

The good news for the top 15 finishers is that 100 players each put $10 into the $1,000 prize pool for the remaining players to divide up.

  

This is the bad news:  It pays to finish near the top, but if you just sneak into the last cashing spot, you haven't accomplished much.  There is a poker saying that goes like this:

Most of the money is at the final table.  Most of the money at the final table is in the top three spots.

First place usually wins 20-25% of the prize pool, so let's say that first place cashes for $240 and second place gets $115.  The amounts go down quickly from there.  If you finish 15th you might win something like $12, barely enough to cover what it cost to enter the tournament.  Congratulations, you played for five hours, your profit was $1 and you made 20¢ per hour!

The point here is that it's hard to make money playing poker.  If you think that you can win because "I can read people" or "I read a poker book" or "I watch poker on TV all the time" it's not going to happen.

If you want to make real money playing poker, you have to understand the math.  Poker is a math based game:  expected value, combinatorics, game theory, optimal vs. exploitive play, and more.  You have to put in the hours, both studying and playing.

Phil Ivey, considered by many to be the best player in the world, won a high school math competition.  One player studies computer vs. computer poker tournaments to better understand Game Theory Optimal situations. 

You have to keep good records.  If you live in the United States, the IRS might want to see those records.   You can't "wing it."  You need to have a plan.  Part two will explain my plan.

As always, I welcome your comments or  questions (see box below.)  This is a "there are no dumb questions" space. 

Internet Problems

Playing online poker should be an easy thing to do.  I sit down to play, and if I'm good enough, I make a profit over a statistically significant sample size.  I wish that it was that simple.

Americas Cardroom is a disaster, as mentioned in earlier posts.  That knocks out one of my two options for playing online.  This month we had a big problem with our internet services.  It's been a problem for a while, especially when I'm playing or trying to study online around 0230.  Everything was so slow that I would type a few words, then wait for the letters to appear on the screen.

Until a few days ago poker had not been affected, but not only was poker affected, it was so bad that I would be unable to play for five or ten minutes at a time.  Every player knows what to do in a tournament when someone loses a connection or stops playing--you play faster.

When someone stops playing (in poker it's called "sitting out") players still have to post the blinds and antes once each orbit.  The faster that everyone plays, the more quickly you can grind down the stack of a player who is sitting out.  Other players get those chips, building their stacks while yours is shrinking.  That happened to me when the internet went down for several minutes at a time.  It cost me a couple tournaments and I skipped a few.

I talked to the people at Comcast, and things have been fine for a couple days.  It seems to be just a touch slow as I'm typing this, but maybe I'm paranoid.

I played last night, I didn't cash, and that one hurt.  I was playing a tournament that paid 12 players and I went out in 13th place.  It's never fun to be close to the money and miss, but that was especially true this time, because I was in the first place for a while.  Well, on to the next tournament.