The State of My Poker, 2015

Tonight is the annual State of the Union address.  In that spirit, it's time to take stock of where poker is for me, and where it's going.  This won't be a detailed anyalyis, instead, I'll just touch on several things.

I played very little, probably about three times a month live, and about the same online.  I haven't put all of the numbers together yet, but I definitely lost money playing live.  As the saying goes, poker is a volume game.  You can't make money when you're not playing.  More about poker finances, family finances and how it all works together in a future post.

I know that I'm playing better, and taking a lot of the right steps.  I'm learning so many new things that I get frustrated.  I can read 25 pages of a poker book and come across at least 5 new ideas or concepts that I want to try out  or implement. I'm a step-by-step learner, and I work on one new idea, or one area that needs work, every time I play a live tournament.

I can't look for chip-handling tells, put several players on a range of hands, and keep track of the exact pot size, all in one tournament.  I have to work on one thing every tournament.  That's the way that I learn the best.

I can only imagine how quickly I'll improve once I'm a full-time player.  I will be able to pick a concept and work on it during 5 tournaments in the same week!  I get really excited thinking about that.  I could play a bunch of $20 to $40 live weekday tournaments and do a lot of improving on the cheap.

My improvement feels agonizingly slow, but other players tell me all the time that I'm getting better.  A guy told me at my last live tournament that I was the most dangerous player at the table when we are down to two tables and almost everyone is short-stacked.  He also said that my new sunglasses were messing him up.    :)

I have definitely been subjected to negative statistical variance.  I've been knocked out of tournament after tournament with a big hand or a statistical advantage, I think I'm at zero cashes for my last fifteen $50 60-player MTTs.  Two weeks ago, I lost with a pair of queens all-in against jack-ten suited.  Whoever won would be at the final table, in the money, and playing for close to $1,000, and the loser would be knocked out or crippled and probably go home with nothing.  Queens that don't share any of villian's suits win that showdown 81.1% of the time.

Two days ago I played an online tournament, similar situation.  I went out in 14th place.  12 players got paid.  Over a statistically valid sample size (hundreds or thousands of tournaments) variance will even out, and I'll get my share of final tables, with chances to win the big money.  I'm sure that a lot of players quit when they hit a long losing streak, not knowing that long winning or losing streaks are completely normal.  It's all about the math, and having the stomach to ride out the variance.
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A Bad Week

One of the biggest problems that I have is making time for poker.  When I take care of my mother-in-law I alternate between staying with her three days or four days a week.  Since this was a three-day week, starting Sunday and ending on Wednesday, I thought I would have a day (Thursday) to catch up on my rest, and I could play a live tournament on the weekend.  It's not working out that way.

I wasn't able to sleep as long as I needed to before we got our day started.  There were a lot of errands that needed to be run, and during that time my wife dropped me off for a dental appointment.  By the time we went to the store, the dentist, the bank and all of the other places that we needed to go, it was already after 4 P.M.  I had some snow shoveling to do at home, and then we had supper.  Before I knew it the day was pretty much over.

There is one thing that really needs to be done this week.  I bought a new laser printer, but so far I haven't been able to install it.  I have the enclosed instructions and a help disk, and I tried to get it done last weekend, but the instructions are inaccurate.  There have been several times where I did what the instructions said, and it just didn't work. For example, the DVD game me three steps, then a box was supposed to pop up.  It did, but it didn't look anything like the instructions said it would.

I spent several hours last week unsuccessfully trying to figure it out. I know I'll get it eventually, but I have no idea how long eventually will be.  Until I can get that done, poker is on hold.

It's the same story almost every week.  Johnathan Little says in one of his books that it takes playing at least 100 live tournaments to be good at it.  Playing just one a week is getting harder and harder.  I don't have a car of my own or any control over my time, and I can feel another week getting away for me.

Our car needs some work, and it looks like I'm going to wind up taking a ride Saturday on city busses that only run once an hour.  The car is supposed to be done around 5:30 P.M.  A local tournament that I would like to play starts at 6 P.M.

So, I have Friday to get the printer up, and maybe I can play then if I get it done, but I'm not counting on it.  That would leave Saturday. So if I can slove the printer problem on Friday, and if the car is done on time and if I drive straight to the poker room, I will be able to play on Saturday.

I need to get 100 tournaments under my belt as soon as possible. I'm struggling to play one a week.  My status as a full-time poker player might be in legal jeapardy, with nasty income tax implications.  I'm a very good problem solver and out-of-the-box thinker, but this situation is untenable, and I have no idea what to do to fix it.

I can give up on my mother-in-law, or face reality and give up on poker (assuming that the IRS doesn't force my hand.)  I'm not prepared to do either.

Changing My Business Plan

A few months ago, I decided that if I was truly going to run my poker like a business*, I needed to have a written business plan.  I wrote one that was several pages long.  It lasted about a week.  I don't really have enough control of my time and situation to stick to any kind of plan that includes things like how many hours a week I'm going to work, or how I'm going to decide which tournaments to play.  When I first decided to play full-time, my goal was to play or study at least 50 hours a week, with at least 25% of that time devoted to study.  That hasn't exactly worked out.

Another part of that plan was how I was going to manage my poker accounts (income tax escrow, live bankroll, online bankroll, and expenses.)  As stated in my 12/10/2014 post, that hasn't worked out well either  When the two bankrolls and my other accounts were added up, in November they were a bit over $1,000.  Now the toal is just over $700.  The combination of my live tournament losing streak and buying a laser printer has drawn down my funds quite a bit.

The reason I bought the printer in early January is because it's a new calendar and tax year.  I'm assuming that I'll have a chance to play often enough to win some serious money this year and use my expenses as business deductions against that income, but then, that's what I thought would happen last year.

I'm making two changes for the first part of 2015.  First, I want to rebuild my accounts so that the total is over $1,000.  No business can operate without capital, and mine is no different.  $700 on hand just isn't enough.  I would love to have a second  30-inch monitor and make other improvements to my office setup.  I need to fatten up my bankrolls.  As soon as I start winning some serious money, I need to keep some of it in escrow for quarterly estimated income tax payments.

The other change is that I'm going to divert funding that has going to my online bankroll and put it toward live poker.  My 68 buy-ins for online tournaments are OK for now and I can build that bankroll from my winnings. I'm spending more time playing online tournaments after my mother-in-law falls asleep (I played two tonight and did some studying, it's about 1:30 A.M. now) so that will help.  I would like my online bankroll to be at 100 buy-ins right now, but it's not exactly a crisis that I'm not there yet.

I haven't decided yet exactly what to do when I start winning some significant money, but until I have 100 buy-ins for both live and online tournaments, nothing is more important than that. I think I'll divide my winnings something like this:  60-65% for bankroll building, 30%  for tax payments, and 5-10% for owner's capital.

Once both of my bankrolls are set and I have some money set aside for expenses, all options are on the table.  I could keep my focus on bankroll building so that I have 100 buy-ins to play higher and make more money, for example, playing  live tournaments with buy-ins between $80 and $100.  Or I could start saving money to pay cash for a second car, which would make it possible for me to play whenever or wherever I want, including casinos, without have to have a family meeting about who can have the car when.  I could improve my office situation and get all of my poker books switched to Kindle, which would be much more convenient, and would  free up space in my office.

I have big dreams, I just have to figure out how to make them happen. The median US personal income is about $26,000.  There are more players than you think who work hard and make that much or more.  I'm not talking about the poker millionaires you see on TV.  There are lots of players you never hear about who work hard every day and make 30, 50, or 100 thousand dollars a year.  I know of a single mother who supported herself and her two children by playing poker online while her kids were in school.

There is no reason that I shouldn't be able to make at least the median personal income playing poker.  When I can finally work full-time, if I can't make a decent income, what's the point?

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*Professional poker player Dusty Schmidt wrote the book, Run Your Poker Like A Business.  Before turning to poker, he managed his father's toy store. In his book he says that he makes about $800,000 a year playing cash games online.

Still Learning And Finding More Mistakes

I played another $50 tournament.  I didn't cash.  I didn't try any of my bankroll preservation strategies.  The relevant situations never came up.  When I made it to the final two tables, I never had quite enough chips to consider coasting into a cashing spot.

The good news is that I'm learning new things (or finding more areas that need work) and that's always a good thing.

One of the interesting things that happened was that most of the players were pretty tame early, but one kept making big bets to push me out of pots.  So I stayed out of his way for a while, then I realized that at some point I had to take a stand.  I started calling about half of his raises, because:

1. He couldn't have a big hand every time, and
2. In general I had to send the message that I wouldn't be pushed around.

After that happened, I started bullying the weakest players and left him alone for a while.  Then came one of those moments when two players develop an unspoken understanding.

We both understood that we should stop competing to be the alpha dog at the table.  He knew that we were the two best players at the table, I knew the same thing, and for 15 minutes we played very few hands against each other and instead fattened our stacks at the expense of the weaker players.  He was doing it by intimidation (big bets and raising) and I was doing it by deception, slowplaying big hands and pretending I was weak when I was strong by how I played my cards, my posture, and anything else I could think of to give a false impression that wasn't too obvious (this is sometimes called giving off false tells.)

When we got down to two tables, the big mistake that I made was getting too tricky with my big hands.  Often when you're short-stacked your choices are all-in or fold, but there are a times when you can wait until a little more money gets into the pot before you strike.  I have a very good understanding of when it's time for standard short-stacked push-or-fold play.  I have a good feel for it and I understand the math.  I tried to get a little tricky too many times and it backfired.  I had already gone all-in several times, and only got a call with one of my seven or so shoves.  What I knew how to do was working, and I fell prey to FPS (Fancy Play Syndrome.)

When I am one of several small stacks, it might be OK to get tricky once in a while, but not very often.  Once you are down to two tables, a short stack will almost inevitably either make the final table, or get knocked out (or crippled), based on a confrontation with another stack big enough to cripple you or knock you out.  That's just the way it works.

There are a lot of situations in poker that can't be controlled in a tournament.  My job is to make the best decision that I can based on the odds, my hand and what range of hands I think my opponent might play in that situation.  I will get knocked out of a lot of tournaments that way.  But I will also double up in enough tournaments to be profitable in the long run, and that's what matters.

For that to happen, I need to be able to play often enough that there is a long run that means something, a large enough sample size that my tournament-by-tournament results eventually converge at a point when  they are somewhat representative of my skill level. Three or four live tournaments per month just doesn't cut it.  Again, I know that I'm doing the right thing when I spend so much time taking care of my mother-in-law.  But it was jarring to read an old post on 2+2 where I said that I would probably be tied up taking care of my mother-in-law for a little longer.

I wrote that post in 2013.