Saturday, April 24, 2010

#22, 4/25/2010--A crazy month and a crazy schedule

I mentioned in my last post that I have been culling the nonperformers from my tournament schedule. I started out as a one-table specialist, and now I'm converting to being a multitable tournament player, which usually means hundreds, or thousands, of players.

That hasn't been a problem, but to but it bluntly, I looked over my records and discovered that I stink at the in-between sizes, from around 2 to 5 tables, that is, more than 9 or 10 players, but less than 100.

In fact, this month those "in between" tournaments killed me. I lost $60 (about half my bankroll). That happened in the first ten days of the month. I cut the nonperformers out, and in the next ten days I played only MTTs with a good structure (the smallest was 1,000 players), and satellites (where the fields are unusually weak, more about that in a future post). In the second ten days of the month I won back most of what I lost in the first ten days.

Between about the 10th and the 20th of the month I got small cashes in about 1/3 of my MTTs, which was enough to be up a little bit, and I tore through the satellites to win back most of what I had lost.

After that, not much happened. I've barely been able to play. I've had to go through a schedule change again, which always messes me up, and I'm now a daytime person for a while. I had to switch because there were a lot of things that had to be done during so-called normal working hours.

There are some family things coming up. I have a twice-a-year job delivering neighborhood association newsletters, and I did that this week, going door-to-door with about 900 of them. (The association is going to have to get someone else to do it next time). I have to go to the neighborhood "dumpster day" on May 8 (it only happens twice a year) and get rid of some of the junk in our basement.

There are other miscellaneous things going on, a day here and a day there, that pretty much commit me to being up during the day, and not playing many of the late tournaments. It's almost 3 A.M. as a I type this (these schedule switches aren't easy!) but I'll set my alarm to be up later this morning, and I'll try to keep myself on my daytime schedule. My wife even expects to go out for our 30th anniversary tomorrow--can you believe it? (Just kidding dear.)

Anyway, here are some of the numbers for this crazy month so far:

Start-of-month bankroll: $140.87
Bankroll ending 4/11: $85.37
Bankroll as of 4/25, 3 A.M.: $133.00

At least I won't be hitting the streets with the newsletters now, so that will give me a lot more time. But I'm really suprised at how hard it seems like it's going to be to set aside at least an 8-hour block of time every day to play MTTs, at least for the next month or two. There just seem to be so many things, like the dumpster day, that are going to cut a big piece out of the middle of my work day.

But it won't always be like this (I hope). I understand now why some authors sequester themselves in a cabin somewhere so they can get their books written!

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

#21, 4/14/2010--Responding to a reader comment

I just read a comment on my previous post. It was thoughtful enough, and important enough, that I thought it should be addressed. I'm going to address the reader's comments in the order that they were written. This will get a bit long, there is a lot to address there, and for those of you who are not poker players, you might get lost in the weeds a little bit. But I'm sure you'll get the idea of what's being talked about, even if you don't understand all of the details.

jsren81 said...
I came across this while searching for something else poker-related.I think bankroll wise you are putting yourself in some dangerous territory. The bare minimum for playing large MTTs is 100 buyins. This would limit you to the $1 level. A lot of people (including myself) will not play with fewer than 200.


I agree with you, and I completely understand bankroll management. I have a plan in place to require extra buy-ins every time that I move up, so that I will eventually be playing with 100 buy-ins. I'll reevaluate then. The reason that I am not playing $1 MTTs has more to do with tournament structure than with dollar amounts.

The cheapest PokerStars tournament with a really good structure (3,000 chips and 15-minute blinds) is a $3.30 MTT on PokerStars. And honestly, it makes a huge difference when I play in that structure. I feel much more comfortable, I can comfortably play more hands in more situations--it just works better for me.

I played that tournament today, and when I have more chips and more time to work with, I am not that player you referred to who is playing too tight so that I can at least mincash. Just having a little more room to operate makes a huge difference.

Today I mincashed in the tournament and was about in the middle of the pack with just under 400 players left. I was prefop with QQ and an M of 9. Villian raised preflop, I reraised, he raised, I shoved my queens and was thinking about landing in the top 50 and going from there--and he showed aces.

That's going to happen from time to time (sometimes a lot of the time, my nut flush lost to a rivered straight flush in the same tournament yesterday, and I just missed the money). But I'm not results-oriented. I know it's about making the right plays and winning over time, and in a deep structure, I am MUCH more confident than I am playing anything else, even STTs--even though I had a 14% SNG ROI in 2008. Running into aces or rivered straight flushes isn't going to happen every day. The results, and the money, will come.

I've had to change my entire schedule so that I can play when the deep MTTs are running, and when it will be quiet enough, long enough that I can play. The computer is in the living room, and I have ADD--which means that having a quiet work environment matters a lot. I should be in my home office any day now, which will help an awful lot as well. So the MTT concentration really hasn't had a lot of time to show results yet.

The bottom line is that I would normally never play outside of a good bankroll structure, but the difference in my playing a deep structure is so great that I believe it justifies the risk. I will add that I've taken a hard look at my numbers a few days ago, and my choices when I'm not playing MTTs haven't been good. I've done well with $2.20 satellites and OK with SNG, but I've been spewing money with other tournaments that I thought would work well for me, so I'm making those adjustments as well.

Also, I have only played live a couple times this year. Even though I was up a few hundred last year in live tournaments, I know that I'm not really bankrolled for it, so that's on hold. I plan to eventually build a separate bankroll to play live. I am taking bankroll management very seriously.

Beyond the actual safety it gives you, it also puts you in a frame of mind where you are not afraid to bust out before the money, so you can gamble optimally. A comment you made in your tournament report post seems to betray the fact that you might be playing too tight in order to make it to the minimum cash. ("all cashes are welcome, even the small ones.") This is bad thinking for an MTT player. Plot a graph of the money in a 1000+ player MTT, it all goes to the final table.It cannot be emphasized enough how sick large field MTT variance is. As one person put it, "a single coin flip or 70/30 can mean end up meaning a 10 or 20% difference in your ROI". That's the difference between winning and losing to most players. Most people do not play solely large MTTs, they play things like 180s and 1000 caps and complement that with larger field tourneys.

I do plan to play more MTTs, but that's a work in progress. I started out as an STT specialist. But I'll never be one of those guys that can play a bunch of tables, so STT isn't the solution. I eventually realized that even a 14% ROI in $10 + $1 SNG is only an average of $1.54 per tournament. That means I would have to move up a lot, or add a lot of tables, to ever make serious money at it. MTTs clearly need to be the emphasis for me, but I'll still grind satellites and mix other things in, which will help with the bankroll issue.

Only those who can put in an absolutely insane amount of volume play only large tournaments (and win). I also think you need to evaluate whether you are really beating the game. Any guy who tells me he beat the $10 level at one point and had to start over after cashing out should be able to grind out a few hundred bucks a month playing at the <$5 level. The games are just that much easier. Either you aren't putting in enough volume, or more likely you are a breakeven/losing player.My recs: * Play $1 or $2 STTs or smaller MTT SNGs (18-45). You are not rolled yet for $2/180 or $4/180, or $2 or $3 large fields. Get a >5% ROI over at least 500 games (preferably 1000). Get confident that you are truly beating the game and earn at least $100 in a month.When you hit $400 BR you can branch out a bit more and you'll have more options.PS Did not mean to sound harsh at all.

Again, thanks for the advice. Not putting in enough volume is an issue, one that I hadn't really considered--I have no idea why. The changes that I continue to make to my work situation should help a lot with that.

I'm not easily offended, and I'm always willing to take advice. I spend a lot of time on the 2+2 forums.

Thanks again,

Clif

Thursday, April 1, 2010

#20, 4/2/2010 March, 2010 Results

Bankroll starting March 1, $122.40
Bankroll ending March 31, $140.87
March results, +$18.47

A profit is a profit, so I'll take it. I'm not exactly thrilled. It was a very volatile month, with some pretty big swings.

I learned a lot this month. The main thing I learned is that, in general, I can't try to force myself into a "normal" daytime schedule, for church or anything else. I was tired all the time, and because of minor illness and other things going on in the family I never made it to church anyway. In general, it just didn't work. Poker is not a first shift job.

There are online pros who make poker work as a first shift job, and someday I might be able to do that. But my biggest problem right now is that I am more convinced than ever, especially after looking at my Sharkcope profit graph, that most of my money is going to come from MTTs (multi-table tournaments) of a thousand players or more.

The tournaments with the best structures for me don't go every hour. They are at all different times, many of them starting at night, and I need to be able to take advantage of those opportunities. And, as I have mentioned in another post, the most US players are on Pokerstars (and other poker sites) during nights and weekends--which means that the most tournament choices are available then as well.

I recently had a 9 A.M. appointment. I slept most of the day before, got up in the evening and played poker all night into the day of the appointment, got a 2-hour nap, then got up and took care of the appoinment. That seemed to work pretty well.

So, the best approach to doing something during the might be to do it right after my work day (which would actually be starting about midway between normal second and third shifts), rather than starting my day with the appointment. If I leave more than eight hours between starting poker and my appointment, that will be enough make it to the final table of a large MTT. The times that I don't go deep into an MTT I can play a smaller tournament, or take some administrative time, or study. Or, if I have a daytime appointment later, or a chance to go to church, I can try to catch a nap first if I need it.

I am slowly but surely improving my playing situation. In 2009 I got a new computer and a 21-inch monitor. I hope to be moving into my home office very soon, maybe even this week. Eventually I will have a laptop, so I can play wherever and whenver I want.

The bottom line is that I'm disappointed about my meager profits this month, but I'm also optomistic. I'm learning what works and what doesn't, and that's not a small thing.